Just a few years ago Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, the so-called BRICS were a top performing block among the emerging markets class, such that they deserved to be treated separately from the others. But the recent international developments have shown that this group is far from being homogeneous, as its constituents are…
As seen in this month’s Master Investor Magazine. Property prices have been on the uptack during recent years and have accelerated over the last few in particular. An apartment in the most expensive area of London averages an astounding £11,600 per square metre while the average for the whole London region is still a respectable…
With the FED hiking its key benchmark rate one should expect interest rates to start rising across the yield curve. Liquidity conditions will tighten and the FED’s balance sheet is going to shrink as well. Hmmm, not so fast! The FED has two trillion problems still to solve, as its monetary policy framework is years…
So, they finally did it! The FED has just announced the first rate hike in almost a decade. Investors have reacted very positively so far… but will the enthusiasm last? There’s no fundamental reason to think it will, as the risks that accumulated during the ZIRP-era will now weigh on the US economy. Yesterday, Janet…
It would seem that the Saudis want everyone to go bust in their attempt to tear down the shale oil revolution, only to push oil prices back up again in future. But do they still have control of this market? Judging by the persistent weakness observed in the market, it seems that everything is falling…
Yesterday, the ECB extended its QE programme until March 2017, cut its deposit rate to -0.30pc and extended its asset purchases to municipal bonds. But with the market expecting an expansion of monthly purchases of around €15 billion and deposit rates to be cut by at least 20 bps, the policy announcement seems more like…
We are now approaching the Christmas season during which people prepare to take a small holiday and to make a few promises regarding the New Year. After all, January represents a new start; it’s an opportunity to correct all our past mistakes and the best time to cut out misbehaviour and improve our lives. The…
After more than a decade of easy money, the emerging world is nearing a downturn (if not a collapse), as the Federal Reserve is threatening to cut off the fuel that for years has fed skyrocketing corporate debt levels. Investors are anxiously awaiting the outcome of the next FOMC meeting, scheduled for December 16, to…
The epic experiment with negative rates continues to unfold, as central banks are unable to boost consumer inflation with the current level of asset purchases. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is already all negative in terms of its key interest rates, but is preparing further action. Strong side effects may occur. It was almost one…
The debate about risk lies too much around CAPM, standard deviation, beta and a few other concepts that are rarely capable of reproducing the true odds of achieving a certain investment goal. Unlike the concept of odds in football betting, which reflects the probability of a certain outcome occurring (even if a little distorted by…
