Economics & Markets

How will the markets respond if Trump’s authority flags further?

How will the markets respond if Trump’s authority flags further?

14 mins. to read

Is the Trump Bump over? President Trump’s Washington is paralysed. It has proven impossible to repeal Obamacare and to replace it with something more amenable to America’s skilled working class who resented paying more for medical insurance. These were the people who propelled Donald Trump to power. Top personnel are being hired and fired with…

Climate change: Future-oriented investors need to get on-trend

Climate change: Future-oriented investors need to get on-trend

1 mins. to read

Climate change is a reality. The glaciers are melting and the sea is getting hotter – with intractable consequences like rising sea-levels. But, that said, the climate models are inexact and we don’t know by how much temperatures are going to rise and how rapidly. This is largely a matter of reasoned conjecture. What we know for sure is…

Thucydides, Spreadsheet Phil and the coming Crash

Thucydides, Spreadsheet Phil and the coming Crash

15 mins. to read

An imminent stock market crash is more likely than investors might suppose. My recurrent nightmare this summer, partially informed by the modern Thucydides, (of whom more below) is that a stock market correction will begin in London when the Brexit negotiations collapse, possibly as soon as late October. But there is no longer such a…

The Macron Miasma

The Macron Miasma

11 mins. to read

How does a spendthrift state which consumes nearly 57 percent of its GDP change its ways? How does a regulated, highly unionised labour market become flexible? What can a modern economy do about an unemployment rate stuck stubbornly at over ten percent? And how do the French rate the Emperor Emmanuel’s first ten weeks in…

The wisdom in books

The wisdom in books

1 mins. to read

“If I wanted to become a tramp, I would seek information and advice from the most successful tramp I could find. If I wanted to become a failure, I would seek advice from men who had never succeeded. If I wanted to succeed in all things, I would look around me for those who are…

Can we make money out of renewables?

Can we make money out of renewables?

12 mins. to read

Thanks to action on climate change at international level, renewable energy (electricity generation by means of solar panels, wind power, heat pumps and so on) is the most rapidly growing industry on the planet. That doesn’t necessarily make it investible. Renewable energy is much more expensive than conventional power generation from hydrocarbons – and much…

Austerity – or Catastrophe…?

Austerity – or Catastrophe…?

15 mins. to read

The minority UK Conservative government is under pressure to loosen the fiscal purse strings. Does that mean the dream of balancing the budget remains no more than a dream? Who would benefit? Will taxes have to rise? And what are the risks? Cardiac arrest in the Gilts market is a real possibility. Under pressure Boris…

At the court of the Emperor Emmanuel

At the court of the Emperor Emmanuel

13 mins. to read

What does the composition of President Macron’s post-election government tell us about France’s likely reform programme? Were the four early resignations a sign of weakness or of strength? Is the young President in as strong a position as he looks? And, assuming things are going in the right direction, who will be the early winners…

Mellon on the Markets: The times they are a changin’

Mellon on the Markets: The times they are a changin’

6 mins. to read

I was recently invited to a Conservative Party lunch hosted by the City and Westminster Tory Association. It was a jolly affair, with hundreds of well-oiled attendees, and despite the recent electoral setback, the mood appeared quite upbeat. Mrs May, to her credit given the recent events, made a formulaic speech that was well received,…

How worried should investors be of a ‘crash’ Brexit?

How worried should investors be of a ‘crash’ Brexit?

12 mins. to read

The FTSE-100 has been gliding around the stratospheric 7,500 level. So everything must be alright, then? Not necessarily. The FTSE-100 is powered by international market sentiment and the relative weakness of the Pound, which makes British blue chips look good value. Now confidence is on the wane. The Institute of Directors issued a report last…