Economics & Markets

Trumponomics, Corbynitis and Post-Thatcherism

Trumponomics, Corbynitis and Post-Thatcherism

12 mins. to read

You can tell a political ideology by its tax-and-spend policies. The two far extremes of the English-speaking political world – the new US populist right and the old UK corporatist left – are fashioning very different fiscal programmes. Might Post-Thatcherite Mrs May be the new Middle Way? The wealth of a nation In an interview…

Are valuations now dangerously stretched?

Are valuations now dangerously stretched?

6 mins. to read

Stretched Valuations Since the beginning of the year, I have been drawing the attention of the reader to the lack of volatility in U.S. markets, as such a high level of complacency is extreme by historical standards and is not supported by current fundamentals. Recently, the VIX (INDEXCBOE:VIX) fell below 10, which is a rare…

Is this the best-kept secret in finance?

Is this the best-kept secret in finance?

1 mins. to read

Historians, in their quest to make sense of the past, refer to two types of source material. Primary sources are those artefacts, diaries or documents created more or less at the same time as the events they depict. Secondary sources, as their name implies, are somewhat second-hand; they refer to books or articles written subsequently,…

Mad about the boy

Mad about the boy

10 mins. to read

He is 39 and-a-half years old. He came top at Sciences Po and ENA. He was Minister of the Economy before he engaged in a death-defying display of political trampolining which took him to the very top. He is clever, sophisticated and good-looking. And he is President-Elect of France, taking the keys of the Élysée…

Sweeten your portfolio with cocoa

Sweeten your portfolio with cocoa

1 mins. to read

In this instalment of The Macro Investor, I’m going to lay the foundations for a long position in cocoa. A solitary undertaking, sound investment comes from developing an alternative, contrarian, view and opposing the crowd when sentiment is extreme. When everybody is pessimistic about the prospects for a market, we hit ground zero. From that…

Signs of life in the eurozone

Signs of life in the eurozone

7 mins. to read

Last Thursday, the ECB decided to keep its monetary policy unchanged, as widely expected, and delay a significant change in its stance until the next meeting, as the political situation in France is still sensitive. While experiencing some volatility during the meeting, the euro is currently trading at almost the same level as it was…

The UK general election: A question of trust

The UK general election: A question of trust

9 mins. to read

The Tories are going to win the forthcoming British general election on 08 June handsomely if the opinion polls are to be believed. But what British election result would please the instinctively pro-Remain international financial elite? Warning: landslide coming When Mrs May called the UK general election on 14 April after a messianic walk through…

Mellon on the Markets

Mellon on the Markets

5 mins. to read

Juvenescence, Bill Gates and the markets It’s been a month since the Master Investor Show, and it’s been a busy one. Markets have basically gone nowhere, except for the post-Macron relief rally which, if you ask me, will soon peter out. I’ve been busy getting the Juvenescence book done, and I think I am now…

Is there any upside in oil?

Is there any upside in oil?

5 mins. to read

Far from memory is the time when Saudi Arabia and OPEC were in control of global oil prices, as are oil prices above $100. A nascent fracking industry in the US, deteriorating social conditions in some oil producing countries and a desire in Saudi Arabia to retain market acted like an explosive mix that changed…

Fair Blows the Wind for France (Or maybe not…)

Fair Blows the Wind for France (Or maybe not…)

12 mins. to read

France goes to the polls this Sunday for the first round of a presidential election of existential importance – both for France and for the European Union as a whole. If La Belle France has a bout of flatulence (the triumph of the far left and the far right candidates) there’s going to be an…