Brexit

Brexit: We are all Ultras now…

Brexit: We are all Ultras now…

13 mins. to read

The Brexit negotiations have entered a critical phase. Decisions made by both sides in the next three months will have long-term consequences. In a state of conflict, all sides become extreme. A modern English Civil War The classic schoolboy pseudo-history 1066 And All That asserted that, during the English Civil War, the Cavaliers were “Wrong…

The Customs Union or a Customs Union? Or just confusion?
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The Customs Union or a Customs Union? Or just confusion?

12 mins. to read

The British political class is riven with dissent over what type of Brexit is most desirable. This is because, after two years of Brexit argy bargy, few Brits really understand the issues – and least of all in the Labour Party. A discourteous proposition Last week Monsieur Barnier, the EU Chief Negotiator, threw a document…

Trump, Trade, Tariffs and Theresa
a katz / Shutterstock.com; Frederic Legrand - COMEO / Shutterstock.com

Trump, Trade, Tariffs and Theresa

11 mins. to read

As a hard or crash Brexit edges closer, it now seems there is no binary option between the EU Customs Union and WTO rules. The Americans are not making things any easier for the UK. Why would they? The truth behind the Bombardier dispute revealed In 2007 the Canadian aerospace company Bombardier (TSE:BBD.A) announced plans…

£350 million a week? Who’s lying?

£350 million a week? Who’s lying?

12 mins. to read

Last weekend, in his 4,000 word essay on Brexit in the Daily Telegraph, Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson resurrected the claim, much touted during the Brexit referendum, that the UK pays Brussels £350 million every week. This prompted howls of protest from the mainstream media and even from the head of the Office of National Statistics.…

An amicable divorce?

An amicable divorce?

10 mins. to read

Ready. Aim. Fire! The notorious Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon (2007) was “triggered” by the United Kingdom last night when Prime Minister May signed off a historic letter to Donald Tusk, President of the European Council. This was delivered by hand by Sir Tim Barrow, our man in Brussels, at 12:20 BST this afternoon.…

Escape from the Brexit Labyrinth

Escape from the Brexit Labyrinth

11 mins. to read

Every school kid now knows that if the British government wants to fulfil the will of the British people expressed last June they have “to trigger” or, “to invoke” Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon (2007). Prime Minister May has stated that she intends to do this before the end of March 2017. Sadly,…

The Pound will recover in time

The Pound will recover in time

10 mins. to read

Regular readers will know my stance on Brexit. And I voted as I did – after much reflection – well aware of the risk of turbulence ahead. Just as I anticipated that the Pound would descend, not in a linear fashion, but in steps. Until, that is, the end-game becomes clear. In a rational world…

House builder Berkeley Group can bounce back from Brexit

House builder Berkeley Group can bounce back from Brexit

5 mins. to read

Despite the Brexit vote, house builders remain an attractive investment proposition. With its high, well-covered yield and low valuation, Berkeley is a star buy for the long term in my opinion. Brexit may cause underperformance in the short run as well as a volatile share price, but Berkeley’s overall risk/reward ratio has significant appeal. According…

The UK’s Brexit negotiating hand is stronger than you think

The UK’s Brexit negotiating hand is stronger than you think

5 mins. to read

Don’t tell ze Britisch but ve really need zem… In a recent reflection on what central bankers get up to when they meet together for some rest and recreation, I attempted to explain what TARGET2 is. This is the settlements system that, since 1999, has facilitated payments between the various Eurozone countries’ internal settlement platforms.…