Filipe R Costa

After more than 10 years without an interest-rate cut, the Federal Reserve is set to loosen monetary policy − but how far are policymakers willing to go?

In recent decades, governments and central banks have come under fierce criticism for the way they manage our most important commodity – money. Money is supposed to be a simple and neutral way of facilitating the financial interactions necessary in all our lives; but it has become somewhat of a burden, and has often been…

I just came accross an article on CNBC about a trader from Saxo Bank who predicts that Bitcoin will be worth $100,000 in 10 years time, as cryptocurrencies gain market share in the highly liquid foreign exchange market. While 10 years is still a long time to wait for such a bold prediction to materialise,…

The budget document is unrealistic… Investors have been anxiously waiting for Trump’s budget proposals, to see if the fiscal shock they have been waiting for has any chance of materialising into a real deal. A big step came on Tuesday, when the government presented its budget for the 2018-2027 period. But, as with everything else…

Stretched Valuations Since the beginning of the year, I have been drawing the attention of the reader to the lack of volatility in U.S. markets, as such a high level of complacency is extreme by historical standards and is not supported by current fundamentals. Recently, the VIX (INDEXCBOE:VIX) fell below 10, which is a rare…

In this instalment of The Macro Investor, I’m going to lay the foundations for a long position in cocoa. A solitary undertaking, sound investment comes from developing an alternative, contrarian, view and opposing the crowd when sentiment is extreme. When everybody is pessimistic about the prospects for a market, we hit ground zero. From that…