Filipe R Costa

German economic bounce to lift the euro

German economic bounce to lift the euro

5 mins. to read

We are at an important juncture in Europe. In particular, in the eurozone. For the last few years this group of countries has been performing badly both in economic and political terms. Poor decisions combined with a lack of economic and political integration and unfortunate external interference (through terrorism and political manipulation) have led the…

2016: A year in perspective

2016: A year in perspective

8 mins. to read

I wish all our readers a Happy New Year! I hope you all enjoyed the festive period and are now prepared to fasten your seat bells for a market journey that is expected to be even more exciting than 2016. After the Brexit vote, the Trump win, the Indian experiment, and more besides, it’s time…

How I’m trading India’s mini depression

How I’m trading India’s mini depression

5 mins. to read

We are at a juncture where the full extent of India’s massive demonetisation mess will be revealed as banks prepare for an assault at their physical currency holdings. After removing 87% of the circulating currency, the government is preparing to allow citizens to withdraw whatever they want in the new currency. But is there enough…

Beat inflation with a portfolio of real assets

Beat inflation with a portfolio of real assets

7 mins. to read

Preparing for higher inflation and interest rates After so many years of extreme monetary policy, of public and private deleveraging, of very low (to negative) interest rates and yields, and of slow economic growth and subdued inflation, the world is changing at the hand of Donald Trump. Investors are already preparing for different times, by…

Investment themes for a Trump presidency

Investment themes for a Trump presidency

2 mins. to read

I will build a great wall – and nobody builds walls better than me, believe me – and I’ll build them very inexpensively. I will build a great, great wall on our southern border, and I will make Mexico pay for that wall. Mark my words. – Donald Trump (during U.S. presidential campaign, 2016) The…

Neil Woodford’s secrets to success

Neil Woodford’s secrets to success

1 mins. to read

We do not focus on short-term performance issues; we focus on the valuation of fundamentals. Our disciplined approach guides us, we believe, to the best opportunities in the stock market and we are very patient investors. We expect our performance to improve when the market begins again to focus, as it inevitably will, on valuation.…

The Fed is behind the curve

The Fed is behind the curve

6 mins. to read

For the second time in a decade, the Fed has hiked its key interest rate target. One year after the first hike, the central bank decided to give continuity to a new tightening trend that is still expected to evolve very slowly over time. Policymakers at the FED now expect three rate rises in 2017,…

Just don’t call it taper

Just don’t call it taper

6 mins. to read

Here we are, finally, at a time when both the ECB and the FED are required to take important policy steps and are expected to diverge the most in years. After much volatility in 2016 because of Brexit, Italy, and Trump, investors are now concentrating their attention on central banks and their magic crafts. Dodging…

India’s DIY recession

India’s DIY recession

6 mins. to read

During the painful periods of hyperinflation in the last century, there were a few episodes when governments decided to demonetise the economy and to reintroduce money in new forms in an attempt to contain the rampant price increases. But these moves pale in comparison to India’s bid to absorb 87% of its circulating physical currency…

Turkey is heading towards chaos

Turkey is heading towards chaos

5 mins. to read

While the global euphoria ignited by Donald Trump persists, there are parts of the world where sentiment is a little weaker. Trump will certainly help central banks to adjust policy and boost the domestic economy, but it will bring a lot of trouble to emerging markets. When I say trouble, I’m not thinking about Trump’s…