In recent decades, governments and central banks have come under fierce criticism for the way they manage our most important commodity – money. Money is supposed to be a simple and neutral way of facilitating the financial interactions necessary in all our lives; but it has become somewhat of a burden, and has often been…
Banco Santader buys Banco Popular It’s always intriguing to read in the news that one big European bank just purchased another, in particular at a time the clouds hanging over European banks are dark and wide. But perhaps those clouds are not as large as many perceive, or maybe they don’t cover the whole European…
I just came accross an article on CNBC about a trader from Saxo Bank who predicts that Bitcoin will be worth $100,000 in 10 years time, as cryptocurrencies gain market share in the highly liquid foreign exchange market. While 10 years is still a long time to wait for such a bold prediction to materialise,…
The budget document is unrealistic… Investors have been anxiously waiting for Trump’s budget proposals, to see if the fiscal shock they have been waiting for has any chance of materialising into a real deal. A big step came on Tuesday, when the government presented its budget for the 2018-2027 period. But, as with everything else…
Stretched Valuations Since the beginning of the year, I have been drawing the attention of the reader to the lack of volatility in U.S. markets, as such a high level of complacency is extreme by historical standards and is not supported by current fundamentals. Recently, the VIX (INDEXCBOE:VIX) fell below 10, which is a rare…
Not good enough Apple has just released its earnings for the quarter ending 1 April, reporting revenues of $52.9 billion, earnings per share of $2.10, a profit margin of 38.9% and an enviable accumulated cash balance of more than a quarter trillion dollars! The company increased its quarterly dividend payments by 10.5% to 63c per…
In this instalment of The Macro Investor, I’m going to lay the foundations for a long position in cocoa. A solitary undertaking, sound investment comes from developing an alternative, contrarian, view and opposing the crowd when sentiment is extreme. When everybody is pessimistic about the prospects for a market, we hit ground zero. From that…
Last Thursday, the ECB decided to keep its monetary policy unchanged, as widely expected, and delay a significant change in its stance until the next meeting, as the political situation in France is still sensitive. While experiencing some volatility during the meeting, the euro is currently trading at almost the same level as it was…
Far from memory is the time when Saudi Arabia and OPEC were in control of global oil prices, as are oil prices above $100. A nascent fracking industry in the US, deteriorating social conditions in some oil producing countries and a desire in Saudi Arabia to retain market acted like an explosive mix that changed…
After some initial enthusiasm, investors are now having second thoughts about the reflation trade and once again pouring more money into bonds, as inflation is expected to remain low for longer than first appeared. But, when yields on a 70-year sovereign are at 1.65%, something must be seriously wrong and it can all only end in tears. Financial markets…
