The US interest rate is the hottest topic in global finance right now, and as a forex trader, however tedious it has become to continuously read seemingly ill advised predictions, it has become impossible to avoid. Everybody is at it. From bookmakers to Greenspan. Interestingly, everyone seems to have a different opinion. There are arguments on both sides, and everybody is looking to the now fabled Jackson Hole meeting at the end of August for clues as to what’s going to play out. I write this pre-Jackson Hole, so by the time you’re reading this there is a chance you’ll have a whole lot more insight into what’s going to happen in September than I do right now. There’s an equal chance things will be just as murky, but there you go.
Anyway, that’s not important right now.
What I feel is important, and what I believe should (but won’t) happen, come Jackson Hole is this: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) should sit down, take stock of what’s happened over the last seven or eight years, and completely revamp monetary policy. For me it’s no longer a case of raising rates by a few percentage points. The economic situation both in the US and the wider international developed world is unprecedented, and it’s time for a change.