Summer is now officially over, and with Wall St back at its desk, things are about to heat up in the financial asset markets. Autumn is traditionally an active period across the full scope of assets, and the currency markets are no exception. Combine this increased volume with the political situation in the US and the uncertainty about what’s likely to unfold over the coming quarters, and there’s plenty of potential for volatility.
It’s looking increasingly unlikely that the Fed is going to raise rates in the near term, despite what the leading news media might like to have us believe, and so my near- to medium-term directional bias is slightly less fundamentally driven (and slightly more technically driven) than it might otherwise be. However, the aforementioned political situation in the US is what I’m focusing on.
With this said, here’s how I intend to interpret what plays out….