A case study module in comparative economics for Trump University (deceased.) As imagined by Robert Sutherland Smith. George, Gideon Osborne of this parish is a dude that pursues bad economics; or so we are told by the famous Ernst and Young Item Club of economic forecasters. That is no exciting, left wing, “pinko” outfit but a…
There it is, European-QE, extended version, Part Two! Mario Draghi delighted investors yesterday with an extension of the current ECB asset purchase programme. Well…delighted them with the announcement, but as soon as he started speaking… It sometimes pays to keep your mouth shut. When the global economy is no longer able to provide enough magma…
Investing is not another science. It is not physics where actions can cause pre-determinable reactions. Some people would like to persuade you that it is; but they are wrong. If you wish to compare it to anything, it is more like tracking in a great wilderness of possibilities. There are fundamentals and market sentiment! Occasionally…
Switzerland is a great example of how it doesn’t matter all that much whether a country is a member of the EU or not, even when it deeply depends on trading with it. It is also shows that under such a scenario, it doesn’t really matter whether or not the country chooses to keep its…
While some are anxiously waiting for an expansion of the current European QE programme, others are praying for that not to happen. At this point, an expansion of QE and a further interest rate cut may act as dynamite for European banks and do little for investors. Banks stand to lose profitability if the European…
THE TRADITIONAL MACRO ECONOMIC MODELS OF THE WEST ARE SPLUTTERING. CAN ALL THE KING’S HORSES AND ALL THE KING’S MEN PUT THEM BACK TOGETHER AGAIN? Markets are such things as dreams are made of, to misquote the Bard. Much of the time, they seem full of apparent meaning (appearances, of course, often being deceptive) whilst…
My birthday lunch in Brussels last month was a jolly affair, with 21 people attending, including the editor of Master Investor. After the lunch, and after its effects had worn off, I turned to contemplation. No, I haven’t suddenly gone all “mindful”, but February 17th has always seemed a good day for internal reflection. And…
As seen in the February edition of Master Investor Magazine. Past mistakes guide future pain The rampant decline in commodity prices that started two years ago seems to have finally put an end to the epic boom most commodities experienced during the early part of this century. Almost no commodity has escaped the furious price…
The European Union is considering the possibility of banning €500 banknotes in a move to fight corruption, fraud, and even terrorism. The high value of these banknotes makes them “too useful a vehicle of corruption and other illegal activity”, anti-fraud authorities claim. We should force people to execute transactions using electronic money and through plastic…
The correlation between oil prices and equity prices has always been shrouded in mysticism, with no one being able to come up with a clear cut explanation for the relationship between the two. Many studies point to a strong relationship between the returns on oil and equities; many others point to the absence of any…
