The Chancellor talked of a new, unwelcome economic cocktail the other week. His message was to warn us that the contents may not be good for our economic health and his own budgetary predictions. It was all a bit like an Agatha Christie ‘who dunnit?!’ Now trimmer and more elegant-looking (as a result of fasting…
As seen in the January edition of Master Investor Magazine. “My global outlook for 2016 is for broadly steady but slow growth – the new normal – but a nervous and skittish market over-reacting to news flow. My biggest threat for this year is a positive upside economic surprise – stronger than expected US growth!…
As seen in the January edition of Master Investor Magazine. 2016, The Year of the Monkey, will be a capricious, unusually nervous year, full of danger and foreboding, not just confined to the financial markets. As ever, nothing is foretold, and no outcome is inevitable. Most people have little concept of how much their lives…
Master Investor was given permission to re-publish this missive from Alan Steel of Alan Steel Asset Management. Alan will be speaking at Master Investor 2016 in what (judging from this article) promises to be a standout performance. Click HERE to book your complimentary free tickets using the discount code “MI2016”. “Under Pressure? Pressure pushing down…
There are many sayings in the financial markets regarding calendar effects. Some say “sell in May and go away”; others say “as goes January, so goes the rest of the year”. Both sayings are based on persistent performance anomalies that were uncovered by traders and confirmed by researchers. Today I’m going to test another calendar…
One should always listen to stock markets; they can tell you things. But in the case of Chinese stock markets it is different. If one thing remains the same in this changing world, it appears to be that things Chinese remain inscrutable to Western eyes. The Chinese stock market collapses, but the empirical evidence for…
I’m still at a loss to explain why in a healthy economy our GDP could be growing at between 2 and 3 per cent annually, yet our debt is still mounting. This was Matthew Parris in his column in The Times last Saturday[i]. I respect Matthew as a highly intelligent writer, though as he admits…
Last week, The Danmarks Nationalbank increased its deposit rate by 10 basis points in a move towards policy normalisation, particularly in regard to interest rate spreads against the ECB. In terms of the Danish economy, this move means almost nothing because short-term interest rates will continue to move within the negative interest rate policy (NIRP)…
During this last trip to France for the New Year something really shocking happened. I was walking through a small town on my way to the boulangerie early one morning to buy some freshly baked croissants for breakfast when I availed myself of a pedestrian crossing to cross the road. And – you won’t believe…
Last month on these pages I explained how the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia emerged from the deserts of Arabia in the early 20th century as an alliance between the ruling House of Saud and the al-Wahhabi clan (War on Terror II: The Janus-Faced Kingdom), who wielded unique religious authority. The conflation of politics and religion…
