It’s been a long, hot September, and global activity remains muted. The Fed has put tightening on Ice with the market now anticipating modest interest rate rises through next year, while the Bank of Japan is chucking the kitchen sink of extreme monetary policy at the problem of deflation. While markets struggled with a host…
The IMF has just accepted it was wrong about the post-Brexit Armageddon predictions. After all, since the Brexit-vote the FTSE 100 is up 11%, the services sector has expanded at a faster rate, and the ONS ended up revising its estimates for GDP growth higher in the second quarter, to 0.7% from 0.6% previously. In…
Don’t tell ze Britisch but ve really need zem… In a recent reflection on what central bankers get up to when they meet together for some rest and recreation, I attempted to explain what TARGET2 is. This is the settlements system that, since 1999, has facilitated payments between the various Eurozone countries’ internal settlement platforms.…
As readers are no doubt aware, OPEC recently agreed a production cut from its August output of 33.2 mb/d (million barrels per day) to a new target of between 32.5 mb/d to 33.0 mb/d. With OECD oil inventories expected at 3,090 million barrels by the end of this year, the agreed production cut is unlikely…
Getting into the second home market is the Holy Grail for baby boomers. Having a buy to let has come easy to them, as they’ve paid off their own mortgages and have had ample income in the decade before retirement to pump money into property. However, it is not just the baby boomers that have…
With the gaggle of visitors to my Spanish lair abating with summer, I’ve had a lot of time for thinking lately. It’s been a quiet time for markets, seemingly, but there have been opportunities, some of which we’ve taken, and others which we outright missed. But you only need one or two to stay ahead…
The world of central banking continues to delight. This particular niche has delivered the greatest advances in economic knowledge, outputting refined new tools to improve the way our economy works. They redefined the zero lower bound, making it possible for borrowers to get a return on their debts; they turned the time preference upside down;…
Savers should brace themselves for more pain as the Bank of England’s latest interest rate cut filters through the system and inflation begins to creep higher. The Bank of England cut its base rate in half in August, from 0.5% to 0.25%, and expanded its Quantitative Easing (QE) programme by £60 billion to £435 billion.…
The remainiacs control the media Do not underestimate the breadth and depth of the recusant remainiacs. Their mouthpieces are the BBC, the Economist and the increasingly ludicrous Financial Times. But they have extensive influence propagated by Church of England vicars, luvvies, much of the teaching profession as well as trendy entrepreneurs and a throng of…
The European politicians who perpetually nudge the United Kingdom to get on with it (that is, to trigger Article 50 and to set out, point-by-point, the definitive post-Brexit blueprint) are like junior chess players who huff and puff because their opponent spends too much time making his first move. They can’t understand that considered meditation…
