Letter to my American friends. The Donald will reach an accommodation with Russia. The alternative could be too awful to contemplate. This thought has momentous importance for investors – and indeed anyone who cares about the future. Now I know many readers may not like Donald Trump, and that he has offended people – women,…
The first month anniversary of Brexit was marked by an all-day debate in London hosted by the BBC and the admirable Intelligence Squared. I went along, partly out of curiosity, and partly to see my friend Dan Hannan, possibly the most articulate and passionate of the Brexiteers. It being London, the audience was heavily stacked…
Get ready for a world of negative interest rates and helicopter money. The lunatics have taken over the asylum. In May I wrote about how the world of the Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) was one of Alice in Wonderland economics with all kinds of unforeseen consequences over the long term. And last week I…
If I were President Erdogan, I wouldn’t congratulate myself too precipitously upon the failed coup attempt. While his government survived the weekend’s military coup, his country’s future may have been compromised, as Turkey has just exploded the bridge that was guiding Turkey into the bosom of the developed world. This represents the regression of a…
July 15. St. Swithin’s Day[i]. An ancient British folk-tale holds that if it rains today, that will set the weather for another 40 days. As I have argued before, meteorology and economics have much in common. Perhaps economists would be better forecasters if they just ignored the central bankers. Dear old George is gone. (I…
As seen in the latest issue of Master Investor Magazine “The Federal Reserve Bank buys government bonds without one penny…” – Congressman Wright Patman, Congressional Record, Sept 30, 1941 Unlimited Intervention Over the last few years, investors have been trying to front run central banks by purchasing bonds, in anticipation of huge price increases…
The last two weeks have been tough mostly because of the Brexit outcome, as it created volatility where peace was previously found. But, speculators, spread bettors and investors all find the best opportunities during panic situations like this. The world has been turned upside down: the 43-year British EU membership is at risk, the pound…
“What we should grasp, however, from the lessons of European history is that, first, there is nothing necessarily benevolent about programmes of European integration; second, the desire to achieve grand utopian plans often poses a grave threat to freedom; and third, European unity has been tried before, and the outcome was far from happy.” –…
About 20 years ago, I was descending a Monro (mountain) in Scotland – Beinn Bheigeir on Islay, to be precise – leading two beautiful young people back to the sea. (My niece and nephew: the girl is now an academic in Switzerland and the boy is in private equity.) And, as it can do there,…
Investing in the UK Pre and Post Brexit At 04:39 on Friday, 24 June David Dimbleby announced that the BBC forecast was that REMAIN could not now win. Cut to a beaming Nigel Farage at a party somewhere talking about the British people getting their country back. As the enormity of the news sunk in,…
