The lesson from the first week of the year is that we should drop any assumptions 2021 is going to get any easier
If you really want to worry about how euphoric markets are, think about the US IPO market. Toppy or what?
After a stunning rise in recent months, Bill Blain says it’s time to “get real” about the long-term prospects for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Is the global economy swinging decisively in China’s favour, or will it prove a longer term struggle? Bill Blain investigates…
Bill Blain wonders whether it’s time to cash in some of those tech gains, in preparation for the next phase of the cycle.
It’s been a long, hot September, and global activity remains muted. The Fed has put tightening on Ice with the market now anticipating modest interest rate rises through next year, while the Bank of Japan is chucking the kitchen sink of extreme monetary policy at the problem of deflation. While markets struggled with a host…
If you want to figure out what’s likely to happen in the next eight months, a good start is to try to understand what’s been happening over the last eight years – since the collapse of Lehman and the beginning of the Global Financial Crisis. Understanding what a portfolio should look like to cope with…
As seen in the January edition of Master Investor Magazine. “My global outlook for 2016 is for broadly steady but slow growth – the new normal – but a nervous and skittish market over-reacting to news flow. My biggest threat for this year is a positive upside economic surprise – stronger than expected US growth!…
As featured in this month’s Master Investor Magazine. A few lifetimes ago, in early August, the editor asked me to write about optimal portfolio composition ahead of the then expected US rate hike in September. I scribbled up a note on how global growth remains sub-par, under threat, and how a rate hike might just…
“It is excellent to have a giants strength, but it is tyrannous to use it like a giant…” Somewhere in Yoorp… Interviewer: Mr Draghi… you’re a central banker. After promising to extend yet more emergency money to Greek banks, a Euro 7bln bridge loan to repay yourself next week, and a new Euro 86bln 3rd…
