Bill Blain

Why inflation is set to make a comeback

Why inflation is set to make a comeback

1 mins. to read

It’s been a long, hot September, and global activity remains muted. The Fed has put tightening on Ice with the market now anticipating modest interest rate rises through next year, while the Bank of Japan is chucking the kitchen sink of extreme monetary policy at the problem of deflation. While markets struggled with a host…

It’s a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World

It’s a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World

1 mins. to read

If you want to figure out what’s likely to happen in the next eight months, a good start is to try to understand what’s been happening over the last eight years – since the collapse of Lehman and the beginning of the Global Financial Crisis. Understanding what a portfolio should look like to cope with…

Portfolio Positioning for 2016

Portfolio Positioning for 2016

7 mins. to read

As seen in the January edition of Master Investor Magazine. “My global outlook for 2016 is for broadly steady but slow growth – the new normal – but a nervous and skittish market over-reacting to news flow. My biggest threat for this year is a positive upside economic surprise – stronger than expected US growth!…

US interest hike in September? Really?

US interest hike in September? Really?

8 mins. to read

As featured in this month’s Master Investor Magazine. A few lifetimes ago, in early August, the editor asked me to write about optimal portfolio composition ahead of the then expected US rate hike in September. I scribbled up a note on how global growth remains sub-par, under threat, and how a rate hike might just…

Mario Draghi Explains The Greek Bailout

Mario Draghi Explains The Greek Bailout

3 mins. to read

“It is excellent to have a giants strength, but it is tyrannous to use it like a giant…” Somewhere in Yoorp… Interviewer: Mr Draghi… you’re a central banker. After promising to extend yet more emergency money to Greek banks, a Euro 7bln bridge loan to repay yourself next week, and a new Euro 86bln 3rd…