The market now resembles one of those challenging Harold Pinter plays where the dialogue of the characters is mysteriously compelling but outwardly meaningless, because Pinter avoids putting it into a plotted or themed context. ‘What’s he on about?’ whispers one member of the audience, nudging the one next to him. ‘No idea!’ responds the ‘nudgee’!…
Market Latin: ‘caveat emptor’ says the Governor; ‘Et tu Brute’ rejoin shocked British Brexiteers; ‘Quo Vadis?’ shout investors. Will a Brexit vote be bad for the equity market, and if so, what sectors is a Brexit vote likely to hurt? The Governor of the Bank of England’s foray into Brexit prophecy has provoked outrage…
If you think the forthcoming mega-bailout of Italy is nothing to do with us, Mr Cameron, think again… Mr Cameron seems to think that the United Kingdom, as an EU state outside the Eurozone, would not have to cough up if there were another round of bailouts in the Eurozone periphery. In particular, the financial…
The ONS has just announced the highest current account deficit on record for the British economy, at 5.2% of annual GDP. While nothing new, this trend may become hazardous now that Brexit plans are under discussion. In fact, some of the effects are already in play and can currently be seen in the stunning deterioration…
Having dutifully laboured to come to a conclusion on this complex and historically momentous event, I lay out what seem to me to be the important facts, probabilities and arguments. The uncertainty of the coming Brexit decision is beginning to spread uncertainty to markets. The outcome will be momentous. We need maximum honesty and objectivity…
Sterling may fall to parity with euro declared a header in the Daily Mail City pages last week[i]. It was one of many stories reporting the warnings of the throng of professional Jeremiahs unleashed by the government-orchestrated IN campaign. Apparently, the gnomes (“strategists”) at UBS had spoken. Other queer fish at Goldman Sachs, HSBC and…
This morning the French Minister for the Economy, Emmanuel Macron, has announced that, post-Brexit, Paris will roll out the red carpet for the mass exodus of persecuted banker-refugees and traumatised hedge-fund-manager-asylum-seekers who will be thronging through the Channel Tunnel. One can imagine the pitiable scenes of these unfortunates, desperate to be reunited with their Swiss…
Do you want to know the true probability of Brexit happening? Then forget about political polls and look at predictive markets instead. The odds offered at betting exchanges and bookmakers provide more accurate forecasts of future outcomes than polls can ever command. While the Brexit vote is now a tough call at newspaper and other…
When I was young the word “security” denoted that one had the wherewithal to buy a cosy retirement bungalow in the Home Counties. Today, the word has been appropriated by politicians with Orwellian intent to mean protection from foreign invasion and from terrorism. (Here at least, they’ve been more successful in the former than in…
Despite David Cameron’s embarrassing imitation of Oliver Twist in Brussels last week, his negotiations ended up mired in the minutiae of trivial amendments to the UK’s relationship with Europe. Small restrictions to child benefit and vague wording about exemption from a common currency and “ever closer union” are the thin gruel that our hapless Prime…
