Having dutifully laboured to come to a conclusion on this complex and historically momentous event, I lay out what seem to me to be the important facts, probabilities and arguments. The uncertainty of the coming Brexit decision is beginning to spread uncertainty to markets. The outcome will be momentous. We need maximum honesty and objectivity…
Sterling may fall to parity with euro declared a header in the Daily Mail City pages last week[i]. It was one of many stories reporting the warnings of the throng of professional Jeremiahs unleashed by the government-orchestrated IN campaign. Apparently, the gnomes (“strategists”) at UBS had spoken. Other queer fish at Goldman Sachs, HSBC and…
This morning the French Minister for the Economy, Emmanuel Macron, has announced that, post-Brexit, Paris will roll out the red carpet for the mass exodus of persecuted banker-refugees and traumatised hedge-fund-manager-asylum-seekers who will be thronging through the Channel Tunnel. One can imagine the pitiable scenes of these unfortunates, desperate to be reunited with their Swiss…
Do you want to know the true probability of Brexit happening? Then forget about political polls and look at predictive markets instead. The odds offered at betting exchanges and bookmakers provide more accurate forecasts of future outcomes than polls can ever command. While the Brexit vote is now a tough call at newspaper and other…
When I was young the word “security” denoted that one had the wherewithal to buy a cosy retirement bungalow in the Home Counties. Today, the word has been appropriated by politicians with Orwellian intent to mean protection from foreign invasion and from terrorism. (Here at least, they’ve been more successful in the former than in…
Despite David Cameron’s embarrassing imitation of Oliver Twist in Brussels last week, his negotiations ended up mired in the minutiae of trivial amendments to the UK’s relationship with Europe. Small restrictions to child benefit and vague wording about exemption from a common currency and “ever closer union” are the thin gruel that our hapless Prime…
Last Friday David Cameron reached a deal with EU policymakers concerning special treatment for Britain and its EU membership. After a hard battle that ended with only modest achievements, we are now entering the final stages of the Brexit debate, which will culminate in June with a referendum to ask the Brits whether they want…
On Saturday morning David Cameron fired the starting gun. Finish point: 23 June. The biggest decision of our lifetime. Welcome to Referendum World. It’s a crazy new theme park where you’ll be taken for a ride. I’m not going to argue pro or con today; I’m just going to warn you: they have already started…
By Kevin Morgan A potential British exit (“Brexit”) from the EU has dominated the news in recent weeks. Predictably, UK businesses have been a focal point for the discussion. The effects of a potential Brexit on UK business are clouded with uncertainty, and there is heightened speculation amongst business owners, investors and the media as…
Then Moses turned and went down from the mountain with the two tablets of the testimony in his hand, tablets which were written on both sides… Exodus 32:15. We always knew, deep down, that it would be like this. When the much awaited Agreement between Mr Cameron and Mr Tusk (Britain and the EU) was…
