Do you want to know the true probability of Brexit happening? Then forget about political polls and look at predictive markets instead. The odds offered at betting exchanges and bookmakers provide more accurate forecasts of future outcomes than polls can ever command. While the Brexit vote is now a tough call at newspaper and other…
When I was young the word “security” denoted that one had the wherewithal to buy a cosy retirement bungalow in the Home Counties. Today, the word has been appropriated by politicians with Orwellian intent to mean protection from foreign invasion and from terrorism. (Here at least, they’ve been more successful in the former than in…
Despite David Cameron’s embarrassing imitation of Oliver Twist in Brussels last week, his negotiations ended up mired in the minutiae of trivial amendments to the UK’s relationship with Europe. Small restrictions to child benefit and vague wording about exemption from a common currency and “ever closer union” are the thin gruel that our hapless Prime…
Last Friday David Cameron reached a deal with EU policymakers concerning special treatment for Britain and its EU membership. After a hard battle that ended with only modest achievements, we are now entering the final stages of the Brexit debate, which will culminate in June with a referendum to ask the Brits whether they want…
On Saturday morning David Cameron fired the starting gun. Finish point: 23 June. The biggest decision of our lifetime. Welcome to Referendum World. It’s a crazy new theme park where you’ll be taken for a ride. I’m not going to argue pro or con today; I’m just going to warn you: they have already started…
By Kevin Morgan A potential British exit (“Brexit”) from the EU has dominated the news in recent weeks. Predictably, UK businesses have been a focal point for the discussion. The effects of a potential Brexit on UK business are clouded with uncertainty, and there is heightened speculation amongst business owners, investors and the media as…
Then Moses turned and went down from the mountain with the two tablets of the testimony in his hand, tablets which were written on both sides… Exodus 32:15. We always knew, deep down, that it would be like this. When the much awaited Agreement between Mr Cameron and Mr Tusk (Britain and the EU) was…
Finally, the groves of academe have awoken to the sound of gnashing teeth. An assembly of the most eminent British historians has formed a campaign group called Historians for Britain[i]. Their aim is to advance the argument, from a historical perspective of course, that the forthcoming UK-EU IN-OUT referendum is a historic opportunity to go…
With China’s recent state visit, our eyes were once again opened to the superstate’s quest for global economic power, and Xi Jinping’s tour helped Britain to realise that what China wants, China gets. There might have been some British opposition to their human rights record, but Jinping and his wife still ended the trip with…
As featured in this month’s Master Investor Magazine. As I wrote on the MI website recently (Mr Cameron’s Gamble), we learnt in late October that the Prime Ministers of Finland and Estonia had no idea what Mr Cameron was talking about. This was not due to a failure to translate Mr Cameron’s speeches into all…
