The key misconception behind the chat board ‘projections’ for Kibo MIning is a failure to understand the disconnect between a ‘project’ and the company ‘owning’ it. But this also stems from a failure to understand the concept of a project’s net present value (NPV). These commentators (and even the house broker’s headline – before hiding…
Here is an update with particular mention of where Kibo Mining and Ncondezi Energy have got to, and a repeat tutorial on how not to value such companies. If their projects go ahead, either company could see their shares reach a few multiples of current levels. By how much isn’t easy to determine, especially for…
My taking a profit on a small proportion of my stake in SolGold after its spurt to 12p following Newcrest International’s offer to buy 10% at 6p per share is looking silly now that the shares are touching 18p – after what looks like a mini-buying stampede today. And after dithering when to get back…
Those who followed me into Solomon Gold, at 3p in March and at 7p two weeks ago, have a short term dilemma. What to do now that the shares have briefly touched 14p and today have bounced off a 10p chart level (but at low volume). Solomon Gold – 10 days to 9th September 2016…
To follow our Magazine article on Uranium, here are some more thoughts… How to invest for what most observers think is an inevitable uranium price recovery in the next few years is not an easy question to answer. Given the long decline in the uranium price after Fukushima, its not surprising that practically all companies…
When I discussed Sirius Minerals in March, I thought it expensive at around 16p, being too far ahead of any meaningful return even though exceptional once it starts (slowly) in ten years time. I thought the same in June at around 19p. However there has been good news recently, and Sirius became doubly more expensive.…
Scotgold Resources (LON:SGZ) When I wrote up Scotgold back in November, it was to highlight how constant share dilution is ‘hidden’ from investors in the only charts available to them – i.e. the share price. When a company’s fundamentals haven’t changed, it’s the market cap that indicates whether or not its value per share has…
I promised to update on Kibo Mining when it published details of its joint venture with an adjacent gold miner to monetise its gold assets in Tanzania’s Lake Victoria gold fields – in order to add to whatever value emerges in its Mbeya coal to power station project. Hiving off parts of a company is…
Writing in the Magazine this month, Richard Gill has re-iterated his bullish view for Caledonia Mining (AIM:CNCL) after its substantial bull run. I have to disagree. While the company was an obvious beneficiary back in January of any improvement in gold – it is in the middle of a well-flagged expansion project at its Zimbabwe…
In previous articles I have emphasised the often overlooked and under-estimated, pernicious, effects of dilution on shareholders’ value in the various gold projects I’ve covered. But a higher gold price, depending on each circumstance, might produce a highly geared counterweight. So, how to balance the two? The Gold Fairy vs the Dilution Devil – who is…
