Speaking at the Isle of Man Funds Association Annual City Luncheon, Jim Mellon asked attendees what Black Swan event they anticipate in the coming year. Responses ranged from some tame market forecasts to full-scale World War 3. Here is what they had to say- Market predictions: “The current UK HNW asset bubble bursts…
The billion tonne question is raging. China’s tumult has been well publicised in recent weeks, but for coking coal and seaborne iron ore, the key question remains: will Chinese steel output ever trip through 1 billion tonnes per annum. If it does, continued output expansion by mining companies is arguably justified. But if it doesn’t,…
As my response to what seemed the panic and hysteria of the Great Fall of China last week, I got myself a pencil and the back of an envelope on which to do some revealing calculations. Although something has frightened the birds in the China stock market chicken coop, it certainly isn’t the result of…
This is not as dramatic and as myopically self interested as it looks. Nor is it beyond reason… Yesterday’s allergic reaction to the devaluation of the Yuan is a reminder of how much investors have to keep in mind and how impossible it is to do that. We live in an ocean of connected facts…
Mining in Chaos Over China’s Currency Move China’s unexpected decision to trim the country’s official exchange rate twice in the last two days has sent shockwaves through the global economy, but one sector that is really grappling with the announcement is the world’s mining press. The policy move, which cut the value of the renminbi…
The Chinese saga is only getting started, as the country surprises the markets with ever more desperate measures. After spending almost $150 billion trying to contain a stock market collapse and declaring short selling as “malicious”, China is now devaluing its currency by the most in 20 years, as exports dropped 8.3% in July. While…
As seen in this month’s issue of Master Investor Magazine. Emerging markets once lured investors with the promise of rich pickings. The BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) were once sure to make us wealthy, or so Jim O’Neil, formerly chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, assured us. When they went off the boil he…
While everyone is concentrating in Greece and the actions taken by the US Federal Reserve, Emerging Markets are collapsing silently. The cracks in the developing economies are deeper than most realise and the risk of a 1997-like currency crisis may catch many by surprise in a not-so-distant future. Instead of achieving a strong financial position,…
