Unemployment in the UK hit a 7 year low after new figures from the Office for National Statistics showed 1.83 million people were out of work at the end of March. Average pay also rose by 1.9% relative to the same period of the prior year, meaning that real wage growth is at its fastest…
One of the most boring realities observed in the financial world is the tendency for reversion. When the price of an asset explodes, it later tends to shrink; when central banks cut their key interest rates, they later tend to hike them; when banks advance too much credit, they later tend to shrink it. The…
Fresh data from the Office for National Statistics has shown that UK industrial output grew at its fastest rate for 6 months in March, rising by 0.5% from March. Manufacturing output also rose by 0.4% in March and February’s growth was adjusted upwards to 0.5%. Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit, said that “the overall…
With the British economy now growing at an unspectacular but still decent pace, it is time to finally let it stand on its own. The support given by the Bank of England with near zero interest rates and asset purchases totalling £375 billion should be near an end, as the central bank is walking an…
In 2008 Warren Buffet made a big bet against hedge funds. He claimed that an investor would be better off following a passive investment strategy by dumping his savings into a low cost index tracker than by handing them to a hedge fund that would actively manage the money for an expensive “two and twenty”…
Here in Badger’s Holt, I’ve deliberately kept my head down during the UK election. I took the view that saying anything would probably get me shot for some form of disloyalty. Being slightly afraid of the potential results, we cautiously positioned to sell GBP and Gilts. While that might not look so smart on the…
The Conservative Party has won an overall majority with 331 seats in the House of Commons. Whilst sterling and UK equities had a good day, analysts are already beginning to warn of future troubles including the promised referendum on EU membership and the costs of a potential exit. Overall views were positive and there was…
In my blog Don’t Fight The Fed, Fight The ECB, published last week, I said that investors face an epic opportunity to short bonds, as the risks of doing so are very narrow while the upside potential is huge. Buying an asset just because you believe someone else will buy it from you at a…
The Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis has said that he expects a bailout agreement to be reached in the coming days or weeks during a speech in Brussels. Mr Varoufakis said the country needs a bad bank to unclog the financial system and a development bank funded by the proceeds of privatisation. The European Central…
An Opinion Worth Millions Whoever thought Ben Bernanke’s golden age was terminated on 1st February, 2014, with the end of his tenure as chairman of the US Federal Reserve, was just plain wrong. The ex-chairman has been on a tight and busy schedule for the past year, travelling from town to town, disseminating his wisdom…
