We are now approaching the Christmas season during which people prepare to take a small holiday and to make a few promises regarding the New Year. After all, January represents a new start; it’s an opportunity to correct all our past mistakes and the best time to cut out misbehaviour and improve our lives. The…
Five days before Mr Osborne gave his Autumn Statement the UK Government released its latest borrowing figures. They should have got more attention than they did. Public sector net borrowing rose by £1.1 billion in October 2015 as compared with October 2014 to £8.2 billion for the month – the highest October level since 2009.…
Tomorrow (Wednesday, 02 December 2015) the United Kingdom, barring some unforeseen upset, will formally enter War on Terror II. Given Jeremy Corbyn’s reluctant decision to give Labour MPs a free vote, it now seems certain that the Prime Minister will get what he wants: Parliamentary approval for RAF bombing attacks on IS positions in the…
After more than a decade of easy money, the emerging world is nearing a downturn (if not a collapse), as the Federal Reserve is threatening to cut off the fuel that for years has fed skyrocketing corporate debt levels. Investors are anxiously awaiting the outcome of the next FOMC meeting, scheduled for December 16, to…
As I write this, I am on a working Norwegian ferry, hugging the coast between Bergen half way up and Kirkenes in the far North of the country. Kirkenes was the second most densely bombed town (after Malta) in Europe in the Second World War, and is the nearest town in Norway to the Russian…
Back in July I wrote a piece on Mr Osborne’s budget (Mr Osborne’s Brave New World) in which I praised him for his courage and vision in taking an axe to our out-of-control welfare state. He was a man with a plan. He was going to make structural reforms that would raise wages and reduce…
It is delightful that Her Majesty’s Government has arranged its communication of fiscal policy to serve also as a means of promoting the interests of the British theatre in its Christmas pantomime season manifestation. These are the kind of business friendly economic efficiencies we need! The manufacturing of theatrical reality is as much part of…
The epic experiment with negative rates continues to unfold, as central banks are unable to boost consumer inflation with the current level of asset purchases. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is already all negative in terms of its key interest rates, but is preparing further action. Strong side effects may occur. It was almost one…
Wednesday’s headline in The Sun was a classic: SHOT DOWN…AND WORLD HOLDS BREATH. I love The Sun. For its honesty, its clarity, its steadfast solidarity with the old English working class; its directness and, very often, its sheer vulgarity. I had heard the BBC that morning and I’d read The Times. But the most detailed…
The debate about risk lies too much around CAPM, standard deviation, beta and a few other concepts that are rarely capable of reproducing the true odds of achieving a certain investment goal. Unlike the concept of odds in football betting, which reflects the probability of a certain outcome occurring (even if a little distorted by…
