Economics & Markets

War on Terror II: The Janus-Faced Kingdom

War on Terror II: The Janus-Faced Kingdom

7 mins. to read

In 1744 in the Arabian city-state of Al-Diriyyah, a prominent Muslim cleric by the name of Muhammad ibn Abdul-Wahhabi came to Muhammad ibn Saud, the emir, asking for protection. This was granted and the two decided to ally themselves. Ibn Saud, from whom the current rulers of Saudi Arabia are descended, endorsed Ibn Abdel Wahhabi’s…

Mercifully, the ECB under-delivered

Mercifully, the ECB under-delivered

7 mins. to read

Yesterday, the ECB extended its QE programme until March 2017, cut its deposit rate to -0.30pc and extended its asset purchases to municipal bonds. But with the market expecting an expansion of monthly purchases of around €15 billion and deposit rates to be cut by at least 20 bps, the policy announcement seems more like…

What the theory says about the January Effect

What the theory says about the January Effect

5 mins. to read

We are now approaching the Christmas season during which people prepare to take a small holiday and to make a few promises regarding the New Year. After all, January represents a new start; it’s an opportunity to correct all our past mistakes and the best time to cut out misbehaviour and improve our lives. The…

Government finances – the mint with the hole

Government finances – the mint with the hole

3 mins. to read

Five days before Mr Osborne gave his Autumn Statement the UK Government released its latest borrowing figures. They should have got more attention than they did. Public sector net borrowing rose by £1.1 billion in October 2015 as compared with October 2014 to £8.2 billion for the month – the highest October level since 2009.…

War on Terror II: How the Markets will Respond

War on Terror II: How the Markets will Respond

5 mins. to read

Tomorrow (Wednesday, 02 December 2015) the United Kingdom, barring some unforeseen upset, will formally enter War on Terror II. Given Jeremy Corbyn’s reluctant decision to give Labour MPs a free vote, it now seems certain that the Prime Minister will get what he wants: Parliamentary approval for RAF bombing attacks on IS positions in the…

Emerging markets are the victims of central banks

Emerging markets are the victims of central banks

7 mins. to read

After more than a decade of easy money, the emerging world is nearing a downturn (if not a collapse), as the Federal Reserve is threatening to cut off the fuel that for years has fed skyrocketing corporate debt levels. Investors are anxiously awaiting the outcome of the next FOMC meeting, scheduled for December 16, to…

Mellon on the Markets

Mellon on the Markets

6 mins. to read

As I write this, I am on a working Norwegian ferry, hugging the coast between Bergen half way up and Kirkenes in the far North of the country. Kirkenes was the second most densely bombed town (after Malta) in Europe in the Second World War, and is the nearest town in Norway to the Russian…

Mr Osborne’s Conjuring Trick

Mr Osborne’s Conjuring Trick

5 mins. to read

Back in July I wrote a piece on Mr Osborne’s budget (Mr Osborne’s Brave New World) in which I praised him for his courage and vision in taking an axe to our out-of-control welfare state. He was a man with a plan. He was going to make structural reforms that would raise wages and reduce…