Suddenly, the idea that all citizens should be paid a basic income by the state is becoming topical across the world. While we associate this idea with the political left – the French Socialist Party candidate in the forthcoming presidential elections, Benoît Hamon, has made it the cornerstone of his programme – it also has…
2017 has only just begun, but it is already filled with a long queue of risky upcoming events, of which politics takes its fair share. Europe will face big challenges, as France and Germany both prepare for general elections, where they will face the growing strength of the far-right anti-European parties. While Marine Le Pen…
The Year of the Fire Rooster My Chinese friends tell me that the auguries of the Chinese New Year are mixed. In Chinese astrology each zodiac year is associated with an animal plus one of the five elements. 2017 is the Year of the Rooster and its element is fire. This is the first such…
2016 incorporated many themes, but the one I would suggest is most pertinent to private investors could be called ‘the death of narrative’. To put it another way, whenever Groupthink encountered the prospect of a geopolitical sea change, it would turn out to be irretrievably wrong. Brexit couldn’t possibly happen – until it did. Trump…
Amidst the furore over the prospects of a hard Brexit and President Trump’s immigration policies, the dry subject of our national finances has been overlooked. So may I have your attention please? Last year the United Kingdom’s national debt increased by £251 million every day. Sobering news The latest news on UK public finances is…
Since Trump won the U.S. election, markets have been flying higher without pause for breath. The Dow, for example, is up 9.7% and recently broke the 20,000 barrier. Trump is probably one of the most eccentric presidents the U.S. has ever deigned to elect, and poses major risks to trade, multinationals, and the world order.…
I made a speech a few days ago to a gathering of property entrepreneurs in London. I intended to speak of my excitement about the new science surrounding longevity – and I did – but I think had I not mentioned property I would have been lynched! So I improvised some thoughts on real estate,…
Suddenly everyone is talking trade deals – while TTP and probably TTIP bite the dust. Why does President Trump prefer bilateral trade deals to multilateral ones? What will the markets make of it all? And what happened when Theresa met Donald? Ciao TTP On 23 January President Trump signed an order to junk the Trans-Pacific…
The last two months and a half have been extremely positive for equities, for the U.S. dollar, for commodities, and for inflation and growth. In the time of Great Deception, people have become hopeless and willing to blindly follow whoever offers them something different. To that extent, Donald Trump has embodied that role and revived…
On the day that the 45th President of the United States of America assumes office, during Davos week, I recall the observation of a great contemporary economist. Harvard’s Ken Rogoff (I have often mentioned his work in these pages, especially This Time it’s Different – Eight Centuries of Financial Folly) was at Davos last year.…
