Since Trump won the U.S. election, markets have been flying higher without pause for breath. The Dow, for example, is up 9.7% and recently broke the 20,000 barrier. Trump is probably one of the most eccentric presidents the U.S. has ever deigned to elect, and poses major risks to trade, multinationals, and the world order.…
I made a speech a few days ago to a gathering of property entrepreneurs in London. I intended to speak of my excitement about the new science surrounding longevity – and I did – but I think had I not mentioned property I would have been lynched! So I improvised some thoughts on real estate,…
Suddenly everyone is talking trade deals – while TTP and probably TTIP bite the dust. Why does President Trump prefer bilateral trade deals to multilateral ones? What will the markets make of it all? And what happened when Theresa met Donald? Ciao TTP On 23 January President Trump signed an order to junk the Trans-Pacific…
The last two months and a half have been extremely positive for equities, for the U.S. dollar, for commodities, and for inflation and growth. In the time of Great Deception, people have become hopeless and willing to blindly follow whoever offers them something different. To that extent, Donald Trump has embodied that role and revived…
On the day that the 45th President of the United States of America assumes office, during Davos week, I recall the observation of a great contemporary economist. Harvard’s Ken Rogoff (I have often mentioned his work in these pages, especially This Time it’s Different – Eight Centuries of Financial Folly) was at Davos last year.…
We are at an important juncture in Europe. In particular, in the eurozone. For the last few years this group of countries has been performing badly both in economic and political terms. Poor decisions combined with a lack of economic and political integration and unfortunate external interference (through terrorism and political manipulation) have led the…
I wish all our readers a Happy New Year! I hope you all enjoyed the festive period and are now prepared to fasten your seat bells for a market journey that is expected to be even more exciting than 2016. After the Brexit vote, the Trump win, the Indian experiment, and more besides, it’s time…
If you had decided to double up your exposure to the London stock market at the beginning of last year then you would have done well in 2016. The FTSE-100 was up by 14.4 percent on the year, confounding the economic realists (like me) and the Brexit doomsayers (not like me). Though, if you were…
We are at a juncture where the full extent of India’s massive demonetisation mess will be revealed as banks prepare for an assault at their physical currency holdings. After removing 87% of the circulating currency, the government is preparing to allow citizens to withdraw whatever they want in the new currency. But is there enough…
My family has gathered on the Isle of Man for the holiday period, and a jolly time we have had. The one unpredictable and notorious feature of this beautiful island is the “four seasons in one day” phenomenon, which means we go from lashing rain to bright clear skies in literally a matter of minutes.…
