The risks are piling up in 2017

2017 has only just begun, but it is already filled with a long queue of risky upcoming events, of which politics takes its fair share. Europe will face big challenges, as France and Germany both prepare for general elections, where they will face the growing strength of the far-right anti-European parties.

While Marine Le Pen (in France) and Frauke Petry (in Germany) are not expected to win outright, they are at least expected to rise through the ranks and play a bigger part in shaping the future of the European Union.


In the UK, it is time for Brexiteers to turn a vote into a reality. While Brexit takes time to materialise, time also plays against such an outcome, as public opinion can change rapidly and may turn against Brexit.

If European economic conditions improve (which is not an unlikely scenario for 2017) and the far-right parties are defeated, sentiment regarding Brexit may shift, in which case it would make the triggering of Article 50 less appealing for the current government.

But if those parties gain strength they will make Brexit harder. It’s complicated and boring to the extent that Brexit will most likely take years to negotiate and, in the meantime, turn into a secondary issue….

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