Stretched Valuations Since the beginning of the year, I have been drawing the attention of the reader to the lack of volatility in U.S. markets, as such a high level of complacency is extreme by historical standards and is not supported by current fundamentals. Recently, the VIX (INDEXCBOE:VIX) fell below 10, which is a rare…
Historians, in their quest to make sense of the past, refer to two types of source material. Primary sources are those artefacts, diaries or documents created more or less at the same time as the events they depict. Secondary sources, as their name implies, are somewhat second-hand; they refer to books or articles written subsequently,…
He is 39 and-a-half years old. He came top at Sciences Po and ENA. He was Minister of the Economy before he engaged in a death-defying display of political trampolining which took him to the very top. He is clever, sophisticated and good-looking. And he is President-Elect of France, taking the keys of the Élysée…
In this instalment of The Macro Investor, I’m going to lay the foundations for a long position in cocoa. A solitary undertaking, sound investment comes from developing an alternative, contrarian, view and opposing the crowd when sentiment is extreme. When everybody is pessimistic about the prospects for a market, we hit ground zero. From that…
Last Thursday, the ECB decided to keep its monetary policy unchanged, as widely expected, and delay a significant change in its stance until the next meeting, as the political situation in France is still sensitive. While experiencing some volatility during the meeting, the euro is currently trading at almost the same level as it was…
The Tories are going to win the forthcoming British general election on 08 June handsomely if the opinion polls are to be believed. But what British election result would please the instinctively pro-Remain international financial elite? Warning: landslide coming When Mrs May called the UK general election on 14 April after a messianic walk through…
Juvenescence, Bill Gates and the markets It’s been a month since the Master Investor Show, and it’s been a busy one. Markets have basically gone nowhere, except for the post-Macron relief rally which, if you ask me, will soon peter out. I’ve been busy getting the Juvenescence book done, and I think I am now…
Far from memory is the time when Saudi Arabia and OPEC were in control of global oil prices, as are oil prices above $100. A nascent fracking industry in the US, deteriorating social conditions in some oil producing countries and a desire in Saudi Arabia to retain market acted like an explosive mix that changed…
France goes to the polls this Sunday for the first round of a presidential election of existential importance – both for France and for the European Union as a whole. If La Belle France has a bout of flatulence (the triumph of the far left and the far right candidates) there’s going to be an…
After some initial enthusiasm, investors are now having second thoughts about the reflation trade and once again pouring more money into bonds, as inflation is expected to remain low for longer than first appeared. But, when yields on a 70-year sovereign are at 1.65%, something must be seriously wrong and it can all only end in tears. Financial markets…
