Zak Mir’s Xmas weekend missive – 3 tech stories – RIMM, AAPL & HPQ

Spreadbet Magazine readers will no doubt be happy to learn that even after over 10 years of marriage, four children under the age of six and, living with the grumpiest man in the world who very often works  from 7am until 3am, that Mrs Mir very kindly allowed Santa Claus to deliver an iPhone 5 into my Christmas stocking. That said, she is prepared for whatever is around the corner by never using my surname – perhaps at least in part because she is Spanish!

Unfortunately, as far as the present is concerned, I have to date not been able to ascertain any significant difference between the iPhone 5 and the iPhone 4, something which may explain why, on a fundamental basis, the share price of Apple has tanked in recent months. In fact, there is another unique explanation which may fit the bill rather better, but you will have to read my latest e-book Lessons From The Financial Markets For 2013  to find out why!  Click the book image below to Buy.

Apple

From a technical perspective, at the moment, I am loathe to even consider that Apple may be a recovery play (contrary to the editor of this publication!). it is however difficult to deny at the moment the positive divergence in the RSI window between the recent price lows near the $500 mark, something which suggests that the stock may in fact be bumping along the bottom.

Nevertheless, given the amount of pain that bulls of the stock are currently experiencing, and not wishing to add to their agony, it may be worth waiting on at least a sustained push back above the May $528 intraday low before even beginning to think of looking at the tech stock as a potential bottom fish. Indeed, as things stand, it appears quite legitimate to be looking towards a potential gap fill of early 2012 support at $419 before assuming that the nightmare in terms of the price action at Apple is finally over. Such a gap fill will likely accompany a revision lower of guidance in the New Year, perhaps as a consequence of disappointing sales during the key Xmas season?

Hewlett Packard

One of the strange phenomena that we have been reminded of in 2012 is that while western Governments around the world may be struggling to rub two pennies together in order to address the demographic time bomb known as the welfare state, large corporations are in fact getting richer and richer by paying less and less tax. Just ask Starbucks. Facebook and Amazon! Presumably the large corporations are really able to get away with this on the basis that they bankroll the main political parties. But, that is “slightly” outside my direct area of expertise. Slightly…! 

This phenomena probably explains why Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) have just gone crying to the Department Of Justice in the US in order to try and get them (via some xenophobic injustice = a big fine) to knobble the UK’s Autonomy Directors for making a monkey out of the US tech giant in paying top dollar for a business it clearly did not understand. Aaah-didums! I would suggest that “caveat emptor” is something that the foolish management of Hewlett-Packard should look up in the dictionary.

As far as the price action of the US stock is concerned, it can be seen how the recent rally in December has taken the shares back up towards the top of a falling trend channel from early  2012 around the $14 level. The implication being that the recent share price rise here is now back at key resistance and the downtrend will resume in earnest at the start of 2013 with a potential $10 target –  the current price channel floor.

RIMM

In the aforementioned book – Lessons From The Financial markets, I stuck my neck out a couple months back by stating that the “death rattle postponed” tag could be applied to Research In Motion. Obviously, depending on what happened next, this could have been a rather foolhardy gesture or a very wise one. So far, it would appear that the stock has just about managed to deliver on the faith I had in the technical’s. This is said on the basis of the shares making a new higher low after last weeks shakedown following the earnings release at $10.50 and, importantly, being above the 200 day moving average – currently at $9.85. The message currently is that while there is no sustained price action below the 200 day line one would be looking for a retest of post-March $15 resistance over the next 4 to 6 weeks…