Day trade ideas – Energy special – 15/08/13

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Brent Crude has made it to Fibonacci target & resistance of 110.55/65. We are overbought short term so it is worth profit taking and perhaps trying shorts with stops above 111.00. A break higher sees a move towards 111.25/33 then April highs of 111.79. Any profit taking here should see us back at 109.90/85. A low for the day possible but if we continue lower look for good support at 109.50/40. Exit shorts & try longs with stops below 109.20 for 109.05/00 & we would expect a bounce from here.

 

Natural Gas pushed through Monday’s high of 3.357/361 but failed below 3.399. Looking a little tired after the bounce over the past week so a drift lower looks likely today to 3.318 then 3.290/285. A low for the day possible but any longs need stops below 3.252 for the next support at 3.223/215 & a buying opportunity for the day here. Resistance at 3.361/376 is where we should struggle today. Watch for selling pressure but any shorts need stops above 3.399 for a test of strong Fibonacci resistance at 3.439. Use a move towards this level as a selling opportunity. We should see prices end the correction at this stage & turn lower again but shorts need stops above 3.465.

 

WTI Crude held Tuesday’s range to leave today’s outlook unchanged. Below 106.05/00 look for a retest of yesterday’s low & support at 105.60/55 possibly 105.30. Watch for a bounce from here once again but any longs need stops below this week’s low of 105.00 for 104.70/67. Be aware that failure here could then target good support at 104.25/12. 107.20/40 is clearly our resistance level to watch & a high for the day very likely again here but shorts need stops above 107.75. We then look for 107.99/108.05 before 108.46. Above here the August high at 108.79/82.

 

RBOB Gasoline is testing resistance at 298.90/00 & although we have pushed a little higher to 299.44 we should struggle around here. It is worth profit taking on longs & perhaps trying shorts looking for a drift lower. However shorts need stops above 300 as a break higher could then target 303/303.50. Exit longs & try shorts in expectation of a high for the day but with stops above 304.50. If we do top out as expected look for a drift lower to 296.77 before good support for today at 295.25/00. Watch for a bounce from here but longs need stops below 293.70 for 292.60/45 & a buying opportunity today.

 

Gasoil September tested support at 923.60/30 but longs were safe with stops below 922 inactivated. However a break lower today cannot be ruled out and could target the next support at 918.25/917.60. Any longs need stops below 917 for 914/913 & a buying opportunity at this stage. Resistance at 930.00 offered a nice profit on longs & held the topside but above here now we should retest this week’s high at 932.50 & a good chance of a high for the day again today. However if we continue higher look for a test of August highs at 936 for a selling opportunity but a break could then target April highs at 940.

 

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