There are many sayings in the financial markets regarding calendar effects. Some say “sell in May and go away”; others say “as goes January, so goes the rest of the year”. Both sayings are based on persistent performance anomalies that were uncovered by traders and confirmed by researchers. Today I’m going to test another calendar…
One should always listen to stock markets; they can tell you things. But in the case of Chinese stock markets it is different. If one thing remains the same in this changing world, it appears to be that things Chinese remain inscrutable to Western eyes. The Chinese stock market collapses, but the empirical evidence for…
I’m still at a loss to explain why in a healthy economy our GDP could be growing at between 2 and 3 per cent annually, yet our debt is still mounting. This was Matthew Parris in his column in The Times last Saturday[i]. I respect Matthew as a highly intelligent writer, though as he admits…
Last week, The Danmarks Nationalbank increased its deposit rate by 10 basis points in a move towards policy normalisation, particularly in regard to interest rate spreads against the ECB. In terms of the Danish economy, this move means almost nothing because short-term interest rates will continue to move within the negative interest rate policy (NIRP)…
During this last trip to France for the New Year something really shocking happened. I was walking through a small town on my way to the boulangerie early one morning to buy some freshly baked croissants for breakfast when I availed myself of a pedestrian crossing to cross the road. And – you won’t believe…
Last month on these pages I explained how the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia emerged from the deserts of Arabia in the early 20th century as an alliance between the ruling House of Saud and the al-Wahhabi clan (War on Terror II: The Janus-Faced Kingdom), who wielded unique religious authority. The conflation of politics and religion…
Happy New Year to all you Master Investors out there! The start of the New Year has been good for those of us fundamentally worried about stretched valuations and a cloudy outlook. China’s ructions have caused some steep falls in most markets. It is worth noting that if January is a down month, typically the…
We asked Victor Hill for his 2016 predictions and, after a few gins, he came back with this: All you need to know about the year ahead. January Three Wise Men arrested on A40 for camel-related offences. Jeremy turns funny. David and François go to a fireworks party. The markets approve. February…
We are now celebrating the third year of Abenomics in Japan. After being in a dormant state for more than twenty years, the Japanese economy was in need of someone that could revitalise it through shock and awe. Shinzo Abe promised what others didn’t and quickly ascended as Prime Minister to unfold a three arrow…
The economy is not the same thing as the stock market and its profits. However, a strong share market with increasing profits is dependent on a growing economy. The former of course tends to discount the latter. That is pretty much where we are now. The share market discounting economic growth has been driven to…
