A dialogue between the Master and his trusty sidekick, Dr Watson, at 221B Baker Street, unpacks the most intriguing paradox in contemporary economics. Rising government debt levels should drive interest rates higher. Instead, interest rates are plunging to zero and below. As Holmes explains, our ultimate fate might be in the hands of an evil…
So here we are again at a junction where policymakers have only two choices: one leads to a merry-go-round that ends and starts at the exact same point; the other leads to a dead-end, forcing a return to the departure point. This has been the choice faced by policymakers over the last few years and…
By Ed Rose The extension of Entrepreneurs’ Relief and introduction of Investors’ Relief announced in the Budget are clearly designed to attract long-term capital investment into companies, particularly small companies with ambitions for high, rapid growth. Does this mean savvy investors will start looking to get into booming sectors like FinTech? The Rise of FinTech…
Back in 2014, and mostly due to the slump in oil prices, Russia fell into a downward spiral that saw the value of its currency slashed and its economy enter a recession. Almost two years later, the currency and the stock market market have recovered, but the economy is still underwater, with GDP declining for…
Letter to my American friends. The Donald will reach an accommodation with Russia. The alternative could be too awful to contemplate. This thought has momentous importance for investors – and indeed anyone who cares about the future. Now I know many readers may not like Donald Trump, and that he has offended people – women,…
The first month anniversary of Brexit was marked by an all-day debate in London hosted by the BBC and the admirable Intelligence Squared. I went along, partly out of curiosity, and partly to see my friend Dan Hannan, possibly the most articulate and passionate of the Brexiteers. It being London, the audience was heavily stacked…
Get ready for a world of negative interest rates and helicopter money. The lunatics have taken over the asylum. In May I wrote about how the world of the Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) was one of Alice in Wonderland economics with all kinds of unforeseen consequences over the long term. And last week I…
If I were President Erdogan, I wouldn’t congratulate myself too precipitously upon the failed coup attempt. While his government survived the weekend’s military coup, his country’s future may have been compromised, as Turkey has just exploded the bridge that was guiding Turkey into the bosom of the developed world. This represents the regression of a…
July 15. St. Swithin’s Day[i]. An ancient British folk-tale holds that if it rains today, that will set the weather for another 40 days. As I have argued before, meteorology and economics have much in common. Perhaps economists would be better forecasters if they just ignored the central bankers. Dear old George is gone. (I…
As seen in the latest issue of Master Investor Magazine “The Federal Reserve Bank buys government bonds without one penny…” – Congressman Wright Patman, Congressional Record, Sept 30, 1941 Unlimited Intervention Over the last few years, investors have been trying to front run central banks by purchasing bonds, in anticipation of huge price increases…
