Financial Armageddon? At least you reacted… Readers’ reactions to my piece in this month’s MI magazine on the theme of Financial Armageddon were, as usual, intelligent and interesting. In case you missed it, I was arguing that risks in the global financial system have been rising inexorably to a point where another systemic financial crisis…
Far from heralding disaster for the Eurozone, Donald Trump may soon help to replace the melancholic frown on European faces with a happy smile of hope. Here’s why… While the world is still reeling from the Trump win over Clinton last Tuesday, there is a huge amount of information to be digested, analysed and filtered in…
Building a wall? A ban on Muslims entering the US? Mass deportation of illegal immigrants? Anyone assessing some of Donald Trump’s more outlandish policies might appear well justified in coming to the conclusion that the 45th President of the United States is set be an economic disaster. But it would be a mistake for investors…
To prove that Wall Street is an early omen of movements still to come in GNP, commentators quote economic studies alleging that market downturns predicted four out of the last five recessions. That is an understatement. Wall Street indexes predicted nine out of the last five recessions! And its mistakes were beauties. – Paul Samuelson…
It’s déjà vu – all over again The great American people have spoken. And the opinion polls were wrong. Again. Those beautiful bellwether states of Ohio, Florida and Georgia called for Mr Trump who is, this morning, the President-Elect of the United States. All over the world “experts”, liberals and lefties are swooning in disbelief,…
Risks in the international financial system have been rising for a while. In recent months bank valuations and some credit default swaps (CDSs – the rates at which banks insure each other) for European banks have reached levels not even seen during the Credit Crunch of 2008. Brexit has created a climate of uncertainty –…
One year ago the FED was discussing whether it should hike its key rate and thus reverse a policy trend that had lasted for a decade. By then, investors were anxiously awaiting such a move, and even expected a rate hike to be the first of many more to come (albeit gradually) over the course…
Another month of the phoney war in markets; range bound almost everywhere, except in Japan – which is performing well – and ahead of every other major market. (So it should: it’s the cheapest and best bet!). Don’t think for one moment that this quiet period and low volatility will last – I’ve just been…
Regular readers will know my stance on Brexit. And I voted as I did – after much reflection – well aware of the risk of turbulence ahead. Just as I anticipated that the Pound would descend, not in a linear fashion, but in steps. Until, that is, the end-game becomes clear. In a rational world…
In a decision that promises huge ramifications for investors, on 8 November the US electorate will cast ballot votes to decide who will become the next President of the United States. On one side is Hillary Clinton, who aims to extend the Democrats’ term in office to twelve years, while at the same time becoming…
