On the day that the 45th President of the United States of America assumes office, during Davos week, I recall the observation of a great contemporary economist. Harvard’s Ken Rogoff (I have often mentioned his work in these pages, especially This Time it’s Different – Eight Centuries of Financial Folly) was at Davos last year.…
We are at an important juncture in Europe. In particular, in the eurozone. For the last few years this group of countries has been performing badly both in economic and political terms. Poor decisions combined with a lack of economic and political integration and unfortunate external interference (through terrorism and political manipulation) have led the…
I wish all our readers a Happy New Year! I hope you all enjoyed the festive period and are now prepared to fasten your seat bells for a market journey that is expected to be even more exciting than 2016. After the Brexit vote, the Trump win, the Indian experiment, and more besides, it’s time…
If you had decided to double up your exposure to the London stock market at the beginning of last year then you would have done well in 2016. The FTSE-100 was up by 14.4 percent on the year, confounding the economic realists (like me) and the Brexit doomsayers (not like me). Though, if you were…
We are at a juncture where the full extent of India’s massive demonetisation mess will be revealed as banks prepare for an assault at their physical currency holdings. After removing 87% of the circulating currency, the government is preparing to allow citizens to withdraw whatever they want in the new currency. But is there enough…
My family has gathered on the Isle of Man for the holiday period, and a jolly time we have had. The one unpredictable and notorious feature of this beautiful island is the “four seasons in one day” phenomenon, which means we go from lashing rain to bright clear skies in literally a matter of minutes.…
Preparing for higher inflation and interest rates After so many years of extreme monetary policy, of public and private deleveraging, of very low (to negative) interest rates and yields, and of slow economic growth and subdued inflation, the world is changing at the hand of Donald Trump. Investors are already preparing for different times, by…
If you ever wondered what that Christmas song really means, look no further. It’s the moment to look back over the momentous year gone by and to prepare for the even more tumultuous one about to dawn. Some amuses bouches for hungry investors, accompanied by a glass of effervescent speculation. A partridge in a pear-shaped…
I will build a great wall – and nobody builds walls better than me, believe me – and I’ll build them very inexpensively. I will build a great, great wall on our southern border, and I will make Mexico pay for that wall. Mark my words. – Donald Trump (during U.S. presidential campaign, 2016) The…
For the second time in a decade, the Fed has hiked its key interest rate target. One year after the first hike, the central bank decided to give continuity to a new tightening trend that is still expected to evolve very slowly over time. Policymakers at the FED now expect three rate rises in 2017,…
