What will be the long-term consequences of the incident in Salisbury on 04 March? It seems a new arms race, already underway, has intensified. Chess-players In Russia, chess is a spectator sport. I have seen, in Gorky Park in winter, a small crowd form around two players locked in intellectual combat over an oversize chess…
Globally, the corporate default rate is about to spike. That will have serious consequences for the international financial system – though not all bad. Rates are on the way up Interest rates in the USA and the UK are going to rise – and more quickly than we thought. We know this because the central…
The outlook for UK government finances has improved (mildly) – that is good news. But the debate about “austerity” will remain with us for many more years. Moderately encouraging numbers Until Mr Hammond’s arrival at 11 Downing Street, March was the month of the budget when tax rates and bands were announced for the forthcoming…
Talk of a stock market correction had been swirling for months ahead of the wobble sparked in the US at the beginning of the year. After enjoying years of relatively low volatility and steady growth across equity markets, we can expect a sustained period of uncertainty at any point. While the blip in February 2018…
The Brexit negotiations have entered a critical phase. Decisions made by both sides in the next three months will have long-term consequences. In a state of conflict, all sides become extreme. A modern English Civil War The classic schoolboy pseudo-history 1066 And All That asserted that, during the English Civil War, the Cavaliers were “Wrong…
The mini collapse in shares earlier in February must surely presage something more serious. In my excessively long experience of markets, the first shudder is rarely the last. Emollient words from inexperienced market commentators should be roundly ignored. This bull market is approaching the shadows of its duration and investors should make use of the…
The index of stock market volatility (the VIX) has gone from almost nothing to quite something. Market experts are donning their Hi-Viz safety apparel. Should we be worried? What are stock markets for? A nineteenth century economist would have answered the question by saying that they are a means of providing essential equity finance to…
For many fund managers, the arrival of January means primarily one thing: the latest investor conference from the Société Générale team of perma-bear analysts, led by Albert ‘Ice Age’ Edwards. In fact, this description is somewhat unfair, given that Albert’s two bearish partners in crime, James Montier and Dylan Grice, have both gone on to…
The eurozone is humming with robust synchronised growth, right? So why has the biggest Wall Street hedge fund shorted European markets to the tune of $22 billion? A very big short Last week CNBC revealed that Bridgewater Capital, a Wall Street hedge fund with $160 billion under management, had taken out short positions on European…
The British political class is riven with dissent over what type of Brexit is most desirable. This is because, after two years of Brexit argy bargy, few Brits really understand the issues – and least of all in the Labour Party. A discourteous proposition Last week Monsieur Barnier, the EU Chief Negotiator, threw a document…
