The index of stock market volatility (the VIX) has gone from almost nothing to quite something. Market experts are donning their Hi-Viz safety apparel. Should we be worried? What are stock markets for? A nineteenth century economist would have answered the question by saying that they are a means of providing essential equity finance to…
For many fund managers, the arrival of January means primarily one thing: the latest investor conference from the Société Générale team of perma-bear analysts, led by Albert ‘Ice Age’ Edwards. In fact, this description is somewhat unfair, given that Albert’s two bearish partners in crime, James Montier and Dylan Grice, have both gone on to…
The eurozone is humming with robust synchronised growth, right? So why has the biggest Wall Street hedge fund shorted European markets to the tune of $22 billion? A very big short Last week CNBC revealed that Bridgewater Capital, a Wall Street hedge fund with $160 billion under management, had taken out short positions on European…
The British political class is riven with dissent over what type of Brexit is most desirable. This is because, after two years of Brexit argy bargy, few Brits really understand the issues – and least of all in the Labour Party. A discourteous proposition Last week Monsieur Barnier, the EU Chief Negotiator, threw a document…
Imagine a continent which leads the world in mobile telephony banking and in fourth generation (satellite) internet access. This is a continent which has achieved remarkable advances in health outcomes as evidenced by levels of infant mortality and life expectancy, and in education over the last two decades. And which is now enjoying supercharged growth.…
The Catalonian insurrection has been defeated by the will of Madrid – mercifully without ugliness. But many Catalans are resentful and do not think the struggle is over. Victor Hill has been visiting Spain’s richest province again. A fairly honourable defeat… On 31 January, a message sent by Carles Puigdemont, the unlikely exiled President of…
Money doesn’t grow on trees – so we are told. Yet central banks like the Bank of England can create it out of nothing. Do they really know what they are doing? And who has gained most from their monetary alchemy? The age of alchemy The Credit Crunch – aka the Financial Crisis – of…
Another year, another pilgrimage to the JP Morgan Biotech conference in San Francisco, now in its 26th year. About 9,000 people scurry around the passageways of the far-too-small-for-purpose St Francis hotel, watching companies present stuff that is now readily available online. The smarter lot, who number about 41,000, hover in the periphery of the conference,…
To Benjamin Braddock (Dustin Hoffman in Mike Nichols’ film The Graduate), the well-meant one-word piece of advice was “plastics”. To the godfather of value investing, Benjamin Graham, the well-meant three word piece of financial advice was “margin of safety” – and that one happens to have lasted the test of time. Faced with the challenge…
Developing countries like Kenya tend to have shockingly high rates of unemployment. But that should not deter investors – rather it is a sign of potential. Worrying numbers When I wrote last week that Kenya has an unemployment rate of 38 percent, a number of colleagues questioned that figure. How could it possibly be so…
