Economics & Markets

Thucydides, Spreadsheet Phil and the coming Crash

Thucydides, Spreadsheet Phil and the coming Crash

15 mins. to read

An imminent stock market crash is more likely than investors might suppose. My recurrent nightmare this summer, partially informed by the modern Thucydides, (of whom more below) is that a stock market correction will begin in London when the Brexit negotiations collapse, possibly as soon as late October. But there is no longer such a…

The Macron Miasma

The Macron Miasma

11 mins. to read

How does a spendthrift state which consumes nearly 57 percent of its GDP change its ways? How does a regulated, highly unionised labour market become flexible? What can a modern economy do about an unemployment rate stuck stubbornly at over ten percent? And how do the French rate the Emperor Emmanuel’s first ten weeks in…

The wisdom in books

The wisdom in books

1 mins. to read

“If I wanted to become a tramp, I would seek information and advice from the most successful tramp I could find. If I wanted to become a failure, I would seek advice from men who had never succeeded. If I wanted to succeed in all things, I would look around me for those who are…

Can we make money out of renewables?

Can we make money out of renewables?

12 mins. to read

Thanks to action on climate change at international level, renewable energy (electricity generation by means of solar panels, wind power, heat pumps and so on) is the most rapidly growing industry on the planet. That doesn’t necessarily make it investible. Renewable energy is much more expensive than conventional power generation from hydrocarbons – and much…

Austerity – or Catastrophe…?

Austerity – or Catastrophe…?

15 mins. to read

The minority UK Conservative government is under pressure to loosen the fiscal purse strings. Does that mean the dream of balancing the budget remains no more than a dream? Who would benefit? Will taxes have to rise? And what are the risks? Cardiac arrest in the Gilts market is a real possibility. Under pressure Boris…

At the court of the Emperor Emmanuel

At the court of the Emperor Emmanuel

13 mins. to read

What does the composition of President Macron’s post-election government tell us about France’s likely reform programme? Were the four early resignations a sign of weakness or of strength? Is the young President in as strong a position as he looks? And, assuming things are going in the right direction, who will be the early winners…

Mellon on the Markets: The times they are a changin’

Mellon on the Markets: The times they are a changin’

6 mins. to read

I was recently invited to a Conservative Party lunch hosted by the City and Westminster Tory Association. It was a jolly affair, with hundreds of well-oiled attendees, and despite the recent electoral setback, the mood appeared quite upbeat. Mrs May, to her credit given the recent events, made a formulaic speech that was well received,…

How worried should investors be of a ‘crash’ Brexit?

How worried should investors be of a ‘crash’ Brexit?

12 mins. to read

The FTSE-100 has been gliding around the stratospheric 7,500 level. So everything must be alright, then? Not necessarily. The FTSE-100 is powered by international market sentiment and the relative weakness of the Pound, which makes British blue chips look good value. Now confidence is on the wane. The Institute of Directors issued a report last…

The Isle of Man: A place where you can

The Isle of Man: A place where you can

3 mins. to read

If you ever wanted to get an idea how life could be if there were more pragmatic regulations, a simple tax regime, and a wide range of options to access capital, you should visit the Isle of Man. It offers a unique combination of possibilities to entrepreneurs, investors, retirees, and anyone else who tries to…

Aftermath: The millennials are coming after your money

Aftermath: The millennials are coming after your money

13 mins. to read

Raking over the smouldering embers of the UK general election, there is one salient theme that speaks to the future. The deep socio-political-demographic divide between the Elders and the Millennials has reached a tipping point. A youthquake has struck. Society – not just in the UK but across the West – is about to change…