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Economics & Markets

The death of narrative

The death of narrative

0 mins. to read

2016 incorporated many themes, but the one I would suggest is most pertinent to private investors could be called ‘the death of narrative’. To put it another way, whenever Groupthink encountered the prospect of a geopolitical sea change, it would turn out to be irretrievably wrong. Brexit couldn’t possibly happen – until it did. Trump…

The UK Government’s debt pit deepens

The UK Government’s debt pit deepens

6 mins. to read

Amidst the furore over the prospects of a hard Brexit and President Trump’s immigration policies, the dry subject of our national finances has been overlooked. So may I have your attention please? Last year the United Kingdom’s national debt increased by £251 million every day. Sobering news The latest news on UK public finances is…

Volatility is at record lows – but for how long?

Volatility is at record lows – but for how long?

5 mins. to read

Since Trump won the U.S. election, markets have been flying higher without pause for breath. The Dow, for example, is up 9.7% and recently broke the 20,000 barrier. Trump is probably one of the most eccentric presidents the U.S. has ever deigned to elect, and poses major risks to trade, multinationals, and the world order.…

Mellon on the Markets

Mellon on the Markets

7 mins. to read

I made a speech a few days ago to a gathering of property entrepreneurs in London. I intended to speak of my excitement about the new science surrounding longevity – and I did – but I think had I not mentioned property I would have been lynched! So I improvised some thoughts on real estate,…

When Theresa met Donald

When Theresa met Donald

12 mins. to read

Suddenly everyone is talking trade deals – while TTP and probably TTIP bite the dust. Why does President Trump prefer bilateral trade deals to multilateral ones? What will the markets make of it all? And what happened when Theresa met Donald? Ciao TTP On 23 January President Trump signed an order to junk the Trans-Pacific…

Brace for impact: How to protect your portfolio using options

Brace for impact: How to protect your portfolio using options

5 mins. to read

The last two months and a half have been extremely positive for equities, for the U.S. dollar, for commodities, and for inflation and growth. In the time of Great Deception, people have become hopeless and willing to blindly follow whoever offers them something different. To that extent, Donald Trump has embodied that role and revived…

The most unlikely President ever?

The most unlikely President ever?

11 mins. to read

On the day that the 45th President of the United States of America assumes office, during Davos week, I recall the observation of a great contemporary economist. Harvard’s Ken Rogoff (I have often mentioned his work in these pages, especially This Time it’s Different – Eight Centuries of Financial Folly) was at Davos last year.…

German economic bounce to lift the euro

German economic bounce to lift the euro

5 mins. to read

We are at an important juncture in Europe. In particular, in the eurozone. For the last few years this group of countries has been performing badly both in economic and political terms. Poor decisions combined with a lack of economic and political integration and unfortunate external interference (through terrorism and political manipulation) have led the…

2016: A year in perspective

2016: A year in perspective

8 mins. to read

I wish all our readers a Happy New Year! I hope you all enjoyed the festive period and are now prepared to fasten your seat bells for a market journey that is expected to be even more exciting than 2016. After the Brexit vote, the Trump win, the Indian experiment, and more besides, it’s time…