While an investor tries to maximise the expected returns of his portfolio, he always faces a formidable enemy – risk. In theory, if leverage has no limits, any level of expected return can be achieved. But risk is also expected to rise with it and make the burden of failure too great for an investor…
2017 has only just begun, but it is already filled with a long queue of risky upcoming events, of which politics takes its fair share. Europe will face big challenges, as France and Germany both prepare for general elections, where they will face the growing strength of the far-right anti-European parties. While Marine Le Pen…
Since Trump won the U.S. election, markets have been flying higher without pause for breath. The Dow, for example, is up 9.7% and recently broke the 20,000 barrier. Trump is probably one of the most eccentric presidents the U.S. has ever deigned to elect, and poses major risks to trade, multinationals, and the world order.…
“For some reason I have always felt happier going against the crowd and generally feel uncomfortable doing what everyone else is doing. So many pressures in the investment business encourage one to do the opposite and go with the crowd.” – Anthony Bolton, “Investing With Anthony Bolton: The Anatomy of a Stock Market Winner”, 2006…
The last two months and a half have been extremely positive for equities, for the U.S. dollar, for commodities, and for inflation and growth. In the time of Great Deception, people have become hopeless and willing to blindly follow whoever offers them something different. To that extent, Donald Trump has embodied that role and revived…
We are at an important juncture in Europe. In particular, in the eurozone. For the last few years this group of countries has been performing badly both in economic and political terms. Poor decisions combined with a lack of economic and political integration and unfortunate external interference (through terrorism and political manipulation) have led the…
I wish all our readers a Happy New Year! I hope you all enjoyed the festive period and are now prepared to fasten your seat bells for a market journey that is expected to be even more exciting than 2016. After the Brexit vote, the Trump win, the Indian experiment, and more besides, it’s time…
We are at a juncture where the full extent of India’s massive demonetisation mess will be revealed as banks prepare for an assault at their physical currency holdings. After removing 87% of the circulating currency, the government is preparing to allow citizens to withdraw whatever they want in the new currency. But is there enough…
Preparing for higher inflation and interest rates After so many years of extreme monetary policy, of public and private deleveraging, of very low (to negative) interest rates and yields, and of slow economic growth and subdued inflation, the world is changing at the hand of Donald Trump. Investors are already preparing for different times, by…
I will build a great wall – and nobody builds walls better than me, believe me – and I’ll build them very inexpensively. I will build a great, great wall on our southern border, and I will make Mexico pay for that wall. Mark my words. – Donald Trump (during U.S. presidential campaign, 2016) The…
