We have managed to have an almost uninterrupted bull run since 2009 … I predicted in 2009 that DJIA would cross 11,000 and will not look back. At the same time I predicted the run to continue to DJIA 14,000 and onto 17,000. 2014 I could see DJIA going toward 20,000. But we were very rudely interrupted. We have had DJIA drop from 18,000 ish down to 16,000 and FTSE 100 from 7,000 ish to 6,000. I said this is going down very badly when DJIA dropped to under 17,000 … which it did, once we dropped below 17,000 we had the largest one day fall that the markets have seen in memory… some 1,300 points in a single day.
So where are we now? What are we supposed to do? Sell? Buy? Do nothing? What is the game plan here?
The market action last week was very positive … and I feel the positive rise will continue on DJIA and FTSE in the coming week. Yet again I have two important numbers which I look for … FTSE 6,000 and DJIA 17,000. If we can rise above DJIA 17,000 I see it as an extremely positive move … a game changer. But if we drop under FTSE 6,000 which could mean a drop under DJIA 16,000 simultaneously, this time we could be heading towards DJIA 14,000 and FTSE 5,000.
They are playing a very complicated game here, which I have now started to navigate through daily rather than medium term … because everything is possible.
On the bull side, we have Christmas approaching, this is very significant psychologically … as Americans like to show their people that the economy is healthy by showing them how well their stock market is doing. So, I feel, we could be heading for a continued and sustained rise towards New Year simply based on this very important factor.
The markets exist within their own matrix regardless of the real economic performance or war etc … During the Second World War, The US stock markets were performing brilliantly … All in all I feel we are going up from here. Can we still get DJIA 20,000 by New Year? Everything is possible but maybe they will take it there in 2016 … rather than 2015.
If DJIA fails at 17,000, then I will get very bearish indeed and will expect a large fall with a target of 14,000.
At the moment they are playing this game in a way that we do not know we are coming or going … So, one has to be careful indeed.
My mood is positive for now and not too worried about being long.
All in my humble opinion and no investment advice intended.
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