Today’s crucial U.S. jobs number could help Obama to second term

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Today is a big day for economic data with the release of the U.S. non-farm payroll data for October at  8:30 a.m. Eastern (12.30 pm UK).

Expectations are for an increase of 120,000-125,000 jobs and for the unemployment rate to increase to 7.9% from 7.8%. Any hint that the unemployment rate is moving down further will be a significant boost to President Obama’s chances of re-election with Democrats likely to assert that their policies are working to boost the American economy.

The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 7.8% in September from 8.1% in August, the lowest rate during Obama’s tenure, whilst payroll employment rose by 114,000

Yesterday the U.S. payroll processor Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported that private sector employment increased by 158,000 jobs in October compared to economist estimates for an increase of around 135,000 jobs. The ADP data showed that U.S. Companies expanded payrolls in October by the most in eight months, with the September data being revised up to a gain of 114,000 jobs.

A good payroll number today will not only be good news for equity investors but also give Democrats plenty of ammunition to help Obama into his second term in the White House with the election on Tuesday. 

Contrarian Investor UK

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