Is today the day that Research in Motion gets back into double figures?

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With RIMM continuing to poke one in the eye of its unnumerable sceptics with the stock rising very close to the key $10 level yesterday (toeing a high of $9.80) it is interesting to see that a previous bear of the stock – Jefferies analyst Peter Misek late Monday upped his rating on the shares to Hold from Underperform, setting a new price target of $10, up from $5.

Preliminary results from our quarterly handset survey indicate developed market carriers have a much more positive view of BlackBerry 10 than we expected,” he writes in a research note. “With greater carrier shelf space and marketing support, we now believe BB10 has a 20%-30% probability of success. While the likelihood is low and we remain well below the Street for the November quarter and February quarter, the potential reward is high.” Sorry Peter, but you are 40% too late with the stock rising by this amount from the lows in the early $6’s in late September and at which point we took the opportunity to double down on the stock.

Misek says he had expected a more muted response from the carriers; his theory is that “carriers see BB10 as one of their last chances to avoid being locked into a long-term smartphone OS duopoly,” with Android and Apple’s iOS.

Misek’s reasoning in coming up with a $10 target? The weighted average of the scenarios below – 

1. He sees a 20%-30% chance that BB10 is success; if it is, he thinks the stock could soar to $43 within 12 months.

2. He sees a 20% chance RIM that BB10 fails and the company is sold for $5 to $7 a share.

3. And he sees a 60% chance that BB10 fails, there is no acquisition, the cash burns up and the stock is a zero.

Us? We just recognise true cash and asset backed value when we see it, a positively skewed risk reward scenario, supportive technicals and a potential takeout.
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