day trade ideas oil & gas special – 22/08/13

Brent Crude held resistance at 110.10/20 & support at 109.35/30. The outlook is quite negative so we could continue lower today for support at 108.65/60. A bounce from here is possible again but watch for better Fibonacci & 200 day moving average support at 108.10/00 & a low for the day. Exit shorts & try longs with stops below 107.70. Immediate resistance at 110.10/20 & we should struggle here again but if we continue higher look for 110.60/70 possibly as far as 111.00 highs for a selling opportunity within this band. Stops on shorts above 111.20 for 111.50/55.

Gasoil September outlook is now negative as we look for a test of 932.50 support. A bb Tuesday’s low of 929.25 should then target 925/924.50 for a short term buying opportunity. Be ready with stops on longs below 922 for 919/918. If we fall any further this week look for excellent Fibonacci & 200 day moving average plus roll over gap support at 915/914 & a very good buying opportunity at this stage. Immediate resistance at 938.50/939 but if we continue higher look for a selling opportunity at 944/945 again today. Be aware of strong Fibonacci resistance at 949 just above.

Natural Gas unable to beat 3.500 for the third day. We are getting overbought so we should struggle here again today but stops on shorts above 3.520 needed. We should then fill the gap at 3.548/556 for a selling opportunity today. Good support at 3.412/410 for trying longs today with stops below 3.385. However the outlook is turning more negative so be ready to go with a break lower for a move towards the next support at 3.360/355 & a buying opportunity. We should see a short term bounce from here but on a break lower look for 3.330/315 & perhaps as far as 3.275/70 for a buying opportunity with stops below 3.255.

Spot Gold hit our buying opportunity at 1357/55 & a low for the day expected & held above 1352 to ensure stops were not activated. However the outlook is turning negative. Don’t forget we are in a 9 month down trend & being overbought with Monday’s reversal day we should turn lower now. Be ready to go with a break below 1352 this time for 1342/41. A low for the day is possible here & worth covering any shorts but any longs need stops below 1338 for a move towards the next support at 1329/28. Look for a bounce from here but longs need stops below 1324. Immediate resistance at 1374/77 & we should struggle here but if we continue higher, this week’s high at 1384 offers a selling opportunity with stops above 1386. A break higher could target 1395. 

WTI Crude was held by 105.20 as expected & we broke 104.50 to hit the next target of 103.65/50. We expected a low for the day & bottomed exactly here as predicted. We are oversold short term now so a bounce from here is possible again today but longs need stops below 103.20. A break lower could then target 102.68 before August lows at 102.22. Just be aware of strong Fibonacci support at 101.76 for a buying opportunity this week. 104.50 is strong resistance & could hold the topside. However if we continue higher look for a selling opportunity at 105.10/20 with stops above 105.40. A break higher should then target 105.90.