day trade ideas oil & gas special – 08/08/13

2 mins. to read


WTI Crude failed just below 105.95 & broke 105.00/90 to bottom at 104.10, just above the next support at 103.95/75 where we expected a low for the day. The daily chart is still negative with the bearish double top in place but short term we are now oversold after 4 days of losses & a recovery is possible in to the end of the week. Look for a test of resistance at 105.20 possibly a move as far as 105.75/95. A high for the day is likely here with the topside expected to be limited in the recovery. Exit longs & try shorts with stops above 106.50. 

Immediate support is 105.58/53 but below here risks a slide to yesterday’s low at 104.16/10. Exit shorts here & try longs down to 103.70 expecting a bounce from here but with stops below 103.30.

Brent Crude broke 107.40 but held above the trend line at 106.90. Short term we look more positive but we have Fibonacci & 200 day moving average resistance at 107.95-108.15. We should struggle here but be ready to go with a break higher for 108.30/40. A high for the day is possible but any shorts need stops above 108.65 for 109.10/20. 

Immediate support is 107.45/40 & a bounce from here possible but if we continue lower look for a test of yesterday’s low at 107.07. Below here meets trend line support at 106.75/65 for a buying opportunity at this stage.

Natural Gas continued to trend lower breaking 6 month trend line support at 3.295 for a test of the 100 week moving average is at 3.226. Failure here today should trigger a move towards excellent support at 3.173 for a buying opportunity with the daily chart oversold. Any move higher in this bear trend is unlikely to last too long at this stage with resistance at 3.301/308 & a high for the day likely but above here we could stretch to 3.330/340.

Gasoil continued lower as predicted to the 901 target & bottomed exactly here. We are oversold short term so a small recovery is possible in to the end of the week. Look for a test of resistance at 908.75/909 & a high for the day possible but on a break higher we could see 912 possibly 913.50/914 for a selling opportunity today. Use stops on shorts above the 200 day moving average at 915.50. 
Immediate support is 901 again today but failure here could trigger a test of good support at last week’s low at 897.

RBOB Gasoline could not quite make it to resistance at 292.60/70 & topped at 292.09 to break lower & target the 200 day moving average at 286.80/70. We expected a low for the day but over ran slightly to 286.09. We are oversold short term & on the daily chart so we could see a recovery in to the end of the week now. Look for a test of the 100 day moving average at 289.60. A break higher is more positive & should target Fibonacci resistance at 292.50-293.20. A high for the day expected so exit longs & try shorts. 

Important support in the 286.80/10 area could hold the downside again today. Exit shorts & try longs with stops below 285.50. However we then meet good Fibonacci support at 284.75/40 for a buying opportunity.


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