day trade ideas – 21/08/13

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Spot Gold fell to our buying opportunity at 1357/55 & a low for the day expected & held above 1352 to ensure stops were not activated. This trade worked perfectly as we hit the 1374/75 level but the outlook is turning negative. Don’t forget we are in a 9 month down trend & being overbought with Monday’s reversal day we should turn lower now. Look for a test of support at 1358/55 but be ready to go with a break below 1352 this time for 1342/41. A low for the day is possible here & worth covering any shorts. Any longs need stops below 1338for a move towards the next support at 1329/28. Look for a bounce from here but longs need stops below 1324.

Immediate resistance at 1377 before this week’s high at 1384 which should offer a selling opportunity with stops above 1386. A break higher could target 1395.

WTI Crude did break lower as predicted to our buying opportunity at 104.50 & bottomed exactly here. The daily chart looks quite negative but in the short term we are oversold so the downside may be more limited today. 104.50 is good support again but 105.20 is where we should struggle on any rally. Above 105.40 however is more positive & could target 105.90. Look for a high for the day here to exit longs & try shorts with stops above 106.35. Try shorts again at 106.75/80 with stops above 107.10.

Keep stops on longs tight below 104.35 & be ready to go with a break looking for 103.65/50. We expect a low for the day here if tested. Exit shorts & try longs with stops below 103.20.

 

Brent Crude headed lower as expected to support at 108.55/15 to try longs expecting a low for the day & we bottomed almost exactly here at 108.61. The bounce hit 110.60/70 & topped exactly here. Today’s outlook is still quite negative so watch for a drift lower to 109.35/30 then below 109.10/00 should see a retest of 108.65/60. A bounce from here is possible again today but watch for better Fibonacci & 200 day moving average support at 108.10/00 & a low for the day. Exit shorts & try longs with stops below 107.70. Immediate resistance at 110.10/20 & we should struggle here but if we continue higher look for 110.60/70 possibly as far as 111.00 highs for a selling opportunity within this band. Stops on shorts above 111.20 for 111.50/55.

 

Natural Gas tested good support at 3.412/410 for trying longs with stops below 3.380 & this trade worked perfectly as we bottomed at 3.388. However the outlook is turning more negative with the small double top so we need to take profit quickly on longs. Be ready to go with a break below 3.410 today for a move towards the next support at 3.360/355. We could see a short term bounce from here but on a break lower look for 3.315 & perhaps as far as 3.275/70 for a buying opportunity with stops below 3.255. Exit longs up to 3.444 as this could hold the topside. We can then try shorts on a move towards 3.500 with stops above 3.520. We should then fill the gap at 3.548 for a selling opportunity today

 

RBOB Gasoline made it back to 295/296 for a selling opportunity & topped exactly here. This trade worked perfectly & with the outlook turning more negative we could see prices continue lower today. Look for 291.00 then yesterday’s low of 289.75 before good Fibonacci & 200 day & 100 week moving average support at 288.80/00. We should see a low for the day & a bounce from here at this stage, but we do need stops below 287.00. A break lower could then target 285.65. Above 293.25 could allow another test of 295/296 for a selling opportunity with stops above 297. A break higher could then reach 299/300 for the next selling opportunity.

 

Gasoil September only just held on to our buying opportunity at 930.75/00 & headed higher for a second selling opportunity at 944/945 & topped exactly here. The outlook is now negative with yesterday’s double top in an overbought market. Look for a test of 930/929 support with a break lower to target 925/924. Be ready with stops on longs below 922 for 919/918. If we fall any further this week look for excellent Fibonacci & 200 day moving average plus roll over gap support at 915/914 & a very good buying opportunity at this stage. Immediate resistance at 938.50/939 but if we continue higher look for a selling opportunity at 944/945 again today. Be aware of strong Fibonacci resistance at 949 just above.

 

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