day trade ideas – 20/08/13 – Energy focus

RBOB Gasoline has plunged to 290.68. Just below here today we have good support at 288.80 for a buying opportunity as we start to look oversold short term. Exit shorts & try longs with stops below 287.60. A break lower could then target 285.65. Above 291.10 is less negative & could see a move towards resistance at 293.25. If we continue higher look for 295/296 for a selling opportunity. 

Gasoil September hit our target of 944.50/00 & topped exactly here as expected. We fell all the way to our buying opportunity at 930.75/00 & bottomed exactly here. We are oversold short term so a bounce from here is possible but keep stops very tight as a break lower should target the next support at 926/925. Use this as a second buying opportunity with stops below 922. Back above 934 is more positive & should target 938.50/939 for some profit taking on longs. If we continue higher look for a second selling opportunity at 944/945.

Natural Gas broke 3.426/434 but did not quite fill the gap at 3.548. We have held support at 3.445 and need to watch this level today being overbought short term. A break lower would target good support at 3.412/410 & a low for the day likely. May be worth trying longs but with stops below 3.380 for the next support & a buying opportunity at 3.358/353. Yesterday’s high at 3.501 should be a struggle & it is only on a break above the gap at 3.548 that we can continue higher.

Spot Gold edged higher but only as far as 1384. We then fell to our buying opportunity at 1357/55 with a low for the day expected. We have bottomed exactly here in fact as we start to look oversold short term but longs need stops below 1352 for a test of the next support at 1342/41. Exit shorts & try longs here expecting a bounce from here but with stops below 1336. If we can hold on to 1355 look for 1362 & possible a bounce as far as 1368/69. If we continue higher we should meet 1374/75 before yesterday’s high at 1384. 

WTI Crude first support at 106.60/50 did hold the downside again as expected. However a break lower looks more likely today for a test of good support at 105.95/90 & a buying opportunity. Exit shorts & try longs with stops below 105.55. A test of 105.19/15 could then follow if we continue lower. If attempting longs here use stops below 104.90 & then use 104.50 as a buying opportunity. 107.80/90 is resistance at & we should struggle here but just above is the recent high of 108.17/25 & should hold the topside as we start to look overbought on the daily chart. However a break above 108.35 should trigger stops & target August highs at 108.82. Exit longs here & try shorts up to July highs at 109.32 expecting to hit profit taking this week.

Brent Crude hit the target of 110.76 then failed just below 111.20 at 111. We have fallen back to the 109.60/55 target now & bottomed exactly here at this stage. This is quite good support & we could see a bounce from here but today’s outlook is still quite negative so any longs need stops below 109.10 for a test of the next support at 108.55/15. Exit shorts & try longs within this band expecting a low for the day with stops below 107.80. We are overbought on the daily chart & short term we still look quite negative but if we hold good support at 109.55 look for 110.10/20 & we should struggle here. A high for the day is very possible but if we continue higher look for 110.60/70 before 111.00 highs for a selling opportunity.