day trade ideas – 16/08/13

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Corn continued higher as expected but broke 468/469 to hit Fibonacci resistance at 475/476 & it was a surprise to see prices go this far but this should hold again today if retested. We are starting to look overbought short term & do not forget we are in a bear trend so we can try shorts here with stops above 480. A break higher would then test 482/483 before 489/489.50. If we reach as far as 493/494 exit longs & try shorts expecting a high for the correction.

Immediate support at 468.50 but below here risks a slide to 464.50/464. Watch for a bounce from here but longs need stops below 460 for a buying opportunity at 458/457. Exit shorts & try longs with stops below 455. 

Soybeans for November broke higher for a selling opportunity at 1267/68 & tested the 200 day moving average at 1270/71. We suggested shorts above here & we did in fact break tom 1272 so this was tricky. If however shorts were held we did top out & are back below 1267. We are overbought short term so some profit taking before the weekend is possible. Look for a test of support at 1259/58 but below here we could test 1249/47 for profit taking on remaining shorts. Exit shorts & use this as a buying opportunity to try longs with stops below 1242. 

Use 1271/72 as a selling opportunity on a revisit today. Use stops on shorts above 1275 as a break higher could then target 1282, possibly 1286. Above here there is little in the way of 1293/94.

Wheat for December. We warned of a real danger of a big squeeze higher at this stage & advised it was too risky running shorts any longer despite the strong down trend. We shot higher to test trend line at 652 for a selling opportunity with stops above 654. This trade worked perfectly as we topped exactly here at 653.50 & we have turned lower towards support at 646. Use this support at for profit taking on shorts but be aware that we could continue lower to 642/641. Failure here sees 639/638 before 636/635 lows. 

A break above 654 however targets 657/658 & we should struggle here. If we see a break higher though be ready for a selling opportunity at 663/664 with a high for the correction expected. Exit longs & try shorts with stops above 666.

Sugar #11 bullish inverse head & shoulders pattern could see prices drive higher & ultimately target 18.00/18.25. Yesterday June highs at 17.29 capped as predicted for a test of support at 17.00/16.97. We predicted a low for the day here to use this as a buying opportunity with stops below 16.90. This trade worked perfectly as we bottomed almost exactly here at 17.03. 

We are still overbought short term so we should struggle again at 17.29. A break above 17.30 however cannot be ruled out and could target 17.48/52. We should watch for some profit taking here. Exit longs & try shorts with stops above 17.62. 17.00/16.97 could hold the downside again but below 16.90 look for a second buying opportunity at 16.80/77 with stops below 16.60.


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