Evil Diaries – Betting explained

As some longer standing readers will confirm I have illustrated before my eventual understanding that political betting must be indulged only if one is an insider. To proceed otherwise may offer a frisson for a few days but in the long run it does not work.

It might therefore be wondered why I made a political bet last week of £2,000 at 4/1 Johnson to go by 2nd October. And here I plead that my bet was immediately pursuant to Lord Macdonald’s public statement that Johnson is a liar. Although everyone knows this truth it is surely most unusual for a former head of the Foreign Office so to comment. I heard it and immediately concluded that this was the opening shot of a really serious campaign to oust Johnson. The rest was straightforward. I was not insider trading but trading at the same time as everybody else since everybody else was an outsider. (I grant you that Johnson will try to cling on forever but, this time, the Conservative Party has sobered up and will block that absurdity successfully.)

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There was a long puff piece in yesterday’s MailOnSunday setting out the reasons to hold Capita (CPI). I thought it was a strong buy recommendation and continue to be amazed that the price is still only 26p. There should surely be a bid. It is worth remembering that when the market has been shaken down bid premiums in practice tend to widen.