The outlook for UK government finances has improved (mildly) – that is good news. But the debate about “austerity” will remain with us for many more years. Moderately encouraging numbers Until Mr Hammond’s arrival at 11 Downing Street, March was the month of the budget when tax rates and bands were announced for the forthcoming…
The Brexit negotiations have entered a critical phase. Decisions made by both sides in the next three months will have long-term consequences. In a state of conflict, all sides become extreme. A modern English Civil War The classic schoolboy pseudo-history 1066 And All That asserted that, during the English Civil War, the Cavaliers were “Wrong…
The index of stock market volatility (the VIX) has gone from almost nothing to quite something. Market experts are donning their Hi-Viz safety apparel. Should we be worried? What are stock markets for? A nineteenth century economist would have answered the question by saying that they are a means of providing essential equity finance to…
The eurozone is humming with robust synchronised growth, right? So why has the biggest Wall Street hedge fund shorted European markets to the tune of $22 billion? A very big short Last week CNBC revealed that Bridgewater Capital, a Wall Street hedge fund with $160 billion under management, had taken out short positions on European…
The British political class is riven with dissent over what type of Brexit is most desirable. This is because, after two years of Brexit argy bargy, few Brits really understand the issues – and least of all in the Labour Party. A discourteous proposition Last week Monsieur Barnier, the EU Chief Negotiator, threw a document…
Imagine a continent which leads the world in mobile telephony banking and in fourth generation (satellite) internet access. This is a continent which has achieved remarkable advances in health outcomes as evidenced by levels of infant mortality and life expectancy, and in education over the last two decades. And which is now enjoying supercharged growth.…
The Catalonian insurrection has been defeated by the will of Madrid – mercifully without ugliness. But many Catalans are resentful and do not think the struggle is over. Victor Hill has been visiting Spain’s richest province again. A fairly honourable defeat… On 31 January, a message sent by Carles Puigdemont, the unlikely exiled President of…
Money doesn’t grow on trees – so we are told. Yet central banks like the Bank of England can create it out of nothing. Do they really know what they are doing? And who has gained most from their monetary alchemy? The age of alchemy The Credit Crunch – aka the Financial Crisis – of…
British banks like Barclays have destroyed shareholder value like no one else in recent years. Now they face the risk of Brexit. So why are the big boys piling in? Always follow the money… When a massive $24 billion New York hedge fund like Tiger Global takes a 2.5 percent stake in Britain’s oldest high…
In the January 2016 edition of Master Investor Magazine I penned an article entitled 2016: The year of living dangerously. That was the year of the Brexit referendum and the triumph of Mr Trump. Populism appeared to be rampant and the Eurozone was under severe strain. But Europe did not fall to the populists. It…
