ZAK MIR – Forensic charting on Aminex, Amerisur and Leni Gas & Oil
Technical Analysis: Aminex (AEX)
On the daily chart, Aminex’s (AEX) shares are currently looking at a “high profile bull flag reversal formation”, with the floor of the flag currently running level with the 20-day moving average and initial August resistance at 2.1p.
The view, on this basis, is that we should assume that there will be a fresh leg to the upside, possibly as high as the top of a falling price channel from April/200-day moving average at 3.63p.
While the conventional approach here, would be to suggest that we should wait for the flag to be broken through August resistance at 2.7p before going “Long”. This is especially the case given that I was happy to recommend a similar “bull flag buy” set up in the latest edition of Spreadbet magazine on G4S (GFS). So far, that has worked and to be perfectly honest, if such a signal can work there, it can work anywhere.
Technical Analysis: Amerisur (AMER)
Although it is true to say that shares of Amerisur (AMER) have done exceptionally well over the past couple of years, rising from below 10p in September 2011, for much of 2013, the shares have disappointed.
Nevertheless, we still have a rising two-year price channel the daily chart, with the floor of the channel currently running through 43p. It is also the case that since the beginning of July the price action has delivered a “deep bear trap” for the shares towards 35p.
Therefore, we are in the aftermath of a decent “Buy” signal. In the near-term there is also a falling RSI support line rebound in the oscillator window, with the oscillator itself having broken above neutral 50 to stand at 51.
While all this combines to make us bullish in the near-term regarding the share price, it may be said that after what has been considerable consolidation over the past few months we would probably like to see a compelling “Buy” signal.
This would come in the form of a weekly close back above the 200-day moving average, currently at 47.7p. If such a signal was delivered during the next couple of weeks, the initial upside here over the following 6 to 8 weeks would be the top of the two-year price channel as high as 65p.
Technical Analysis: Leni Gas and Oil (LGO)
The Leni Gas and Oil (LGO) daily chart over the past year, shows a sharp “near vertical” move during October and November last year from 0.4p to 1.8p – it is difficult not to be biased towards the upside scenario. This is the case even after the unfilled June gap to the downside and subsequent bear trap below former April 0.8p support.
The position now is constructive given the way that we are coming off a rebound at the floor of a rising 2012 price channel last month, and have been treated to a “bull flag” break through 1.02p.
The likelihood now is that while is no end of day close back below recent August support/the 20-day moving average at 0.9p the upside here should be towards last year’s price channel top at 1.6p on a 2 to 3 months timeframe.
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