to trade or not to trade? Tradingtrends eod post

3 mins. to read

I made a long winded post this morning before the markets woke up. It detailed 10 reasons to consider buying Gulf Keystone Petroleum this morning. Out of the 10 reasons to consider trading GKP, only 1 gave me a really good indication that today was going to be a good day to Buy.
1 out of 10 was the Chaikin Advance/Decline Oscillator. Which was showing a Bullish Divergence to Price.

On the 4 hour chart this morning I could see a possible trade to the long side or to the short side as there was a large Mother Bar and a few Inside Bars, just itching to breakout one way or another. The inside bars were towards the top of the signal candle and suggested a Long trade was to be had on their breakout. So, I returned to the Daily charts to see if I could see a Price action reason to put in a Buy Order. I couldn’t. There is so much resistance above that I am having to wait for a retrace of this move, however long it goes on for. Otherwise I’ll just be chasing the trade. So I am waiting for this present momentum to dwindle and a retrace to a fib level. Then on the Price action front I’ll look for more Inside/Outside Bars, maybe a pattern like a Tweezer Bottom at resistance. Just something for me to put my stop behind in a logical place. 

I may not catch the Bottom or Top of the move this way but I know from experience that gaining the meat of the trade is a good step forward.

Yesterday I posted how I was thinking the SPX was going to be traded today, depending on where the price ended up in relation to the 5 minute Candle at 15:00 (which was the news Candle). I waited patiently and caught several Points potentially. At present my Stop is under a swing low and my aim is to trail it for as long as possible. My Profit Target 1 was met and then it retraced , creating the swing low and is now just shy of a double top. When the US market re-opens it will be interesting to see how much gets taken off me in open P/L , or whether the price fires up towards my target of 1400.

My NZD/USD and NZD/JPY trades continue to head higher. I am trailing that stop and having got through a bit of resistance from a bearish trendline I am now keeping my eye out on larger fib retracements and Price Action. It would now feel silly to give too much back to the markets after being so patient.

I opened 2 new postions today as well USD/CAD & CAD/JPY. Each are in the same vain as the NZD trades. I start with 2 positions and then as Profit Targets are met I take money off the table and trail the second position with a stop.

NZDUSD daily

The reasons for these Daily trade entries is because Price has proven itself to me and has made an attempt at starting a new trend. The idea is to capture as much of this trend. Hence the name of my blog… Trading Trends!
The SPX trades are a little different, as my aim is to scalp the first part and then get in on a larger move. 

S&P 500 hourly

Hope everyone had a good day and that this is all making sense. My posts get more heated when I am losing, at the moment all is well, so feeling very relaxed.

Nev Hornsey (Trading Trends)

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