The Evil Diaries: SAB Miller and Caledonia Mining

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The Evil Diaries: SAB Miller and Caledonia Mining

When AstraZeneca (AZN), then £40, turned down a bid from Pfizer at around £55, the objections, based on employment in the UK and the benefit of long term research laboratories based in the UK, were spurious. Given the current price of c. £40, the result has been that shareholders have been denied about £10bn. Not very wise.

The fear might therefore be that the similarly-sized bid for SAB Miller (SAB) could be similarly skewered. But, here, employment is not a matter falling to be considered and nobody cares about the long term handling/development of brands of beer. Further, the major shareholders are based overseas with no material cultural loyalties/duties owed to anybody bar themselves. It is all about price. SAB stands at around £37 and the comments from its board indicate that SAB will be sold to AB Inbev at a new improved offer of £44 cash. As previously remarked, this will take time.

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Caledonia Mining (CMCL) may suffer to investors’ eyes through being based in Zimbabwe. But, reporting today, it owns 49% of the Blanket mine and things are bonging along. There is no debt, cash comes to £17m and production costs are low. If one is prepared to take a risk on Zimbabwe at long last behaving sensibly and the gold price continuing to trend favourably, this is a bet at 42p.

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Structural reforms are demanded by the OECD if another financial crisis is to be avoided. These include getting rid of the 35 hour week and opening shops on Sundays. Well I never! (Incidentally, there was a time when such changes were regarded as common sense.)

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Finally, gold continues to strengthen and is now at $1,166. Not a point at which to sell.

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