The Evil Diaries: Rural Crime

Evil discusses the FTSE, gold miners, Outsourcery, Mitie, Afren, loonie/USD, the election, and rural crime…

As it happens, aside from going short of FTSE pursuant to the Crispin Odey-inspired message of doom last week, I am long gold and gold shares such as, you guessed it, Orosur (OMI). But I decline to get involved with Randgold (RRS) since its reserves are stuck in the middle of Africa and must therefore be valued at much closer to nil than the market is currently minded. One day the truth will emerge.

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Piers Linney, boss of Outsourcery (OUT), has departed Dragons’ Den, pleading other engagements. That is an odd thing for such a blatant self-promoter to do. I suspect that he has got troubles at home. Stay short of Outsourcery at 23p.

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I have been waiting to short Mitie (MTO), conscious that it might disobediently fail to oblige – thanks, shall we say, to quantitative easing. But the results to March 2014 last year came out on 19th May. Assuming that approximately the same timetable will apply this year and also presuming that the developing horror emerges materially on this results declaration many will choose to defer opening a short. But I am reminded of the immensely fat Michael Ryan, a seriously heavy drinker and owner of a really good filly, Finsceal Beo, some seven years ago. Her trainer, Jim Bolger, was and remains seriously ascetic and advised Michael Ryan that it would be wiser to be abstemious. He replied that he just could not risk it. For me it is the same with Mitie.

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I also shorted Afren (AFR) at 7.5p since the debt position looks hopeless. There can be a surprise refinancing but I myself do not see it. It might be different if Afren were capitalised at, say, £10m but it is not. It is in fact capitalised at a startling £85m where the simple fact is that the creditors want paying right now.

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I was able to short the loonie/USD again by buying at 1.27174. The key to it is that once one decides that the loonie is a petro currency one can bet accordingly.

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Apparently, the British electorate votes in its own interest. As 7th May approaches it will realise that a vote for Labour greatly increases the chance of a Lab/SNP coalition and, at that point, the English will vote English or Conservative. The Conservatives will get a majority of seats and probably end up running the country. So back ‘em at 4/5 and better, big time, first to get most seats and second to form a government.

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Finally, rural crime: As I left the church hall abutting the graveyard of the Oxfordshire village church in which my wife’s family had just interred my mother-in-law last Friday I was accosted by an elderly lady who, admittedly, had an impish smile. She introduced herself and disclosed that she, my mother-in-law and another lady who preferred to sit together in the front pew when attending church services had one Sunday been irritated by another churchgoer of that parish who had taken the triumvirate’s presumed reservation. So the three had stared the interloper into submission such that order was restored for the following Sunday. I remarked that people have been sent to jail for less and Clouseau-like I went on my way.