The Evil Diaries: Afren Continues to Astound

Evil discusses Phosphorus Holdco PIK Toggle bonds, Afren, Quindell and the Grand National…

Back on Phosphorus Holdco PIK Toggle bonds, it has been pointed out to me that BC Partners are not fools and would not have seen this £205m dividend paid away unless they had taken advice to show that such payment would be lawful. However, it depends upon what one considers lawful or unlawful. I suspect that it may be partially unlawful and that BC Partners are standing ready to negotiate. Their costs from hereon should not exceed £1m and the refund might be just £40m. This is merely a commercial extension of the adage that if one does not ask one does not get. The bonds still trade below 4p or 4%.

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Afren (AFR) continues to astound. This morning the bonds trade at 42% of face value and do not remotely look like being satisfied for cash. This continues to mean that the ordinaries are valueless. I sold again. I can only explain the buoyant performance of the ordinaries by positing short closing.

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I am told that Slater and Gordon continue to be interested in buying not just parts of Quindell (QPP) but the whole shooting match. This surprises me since it is my general reckoning that when a company has been messed about as much as Quindell has it is very unlikely to hold any residual value. On the other hand, Morgan Stanley have just bought 25m shares. You’ll have to make up your own minds.

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Finally, I am reliably advised that the Grand National might be won by Godsmejudge, now 25/1.