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to trade or not to trade? Tradingtrends eod post

to trade or not to trade? Tradingtrends eod post

3 mins. to read

I made a long winded post this morning before the markets woke up. It detailed 10 reasons to consider buying Gulf Keystone Petroleum this morning. Out of the 10 reasons to consider trading GKP, only 1 gave me a really good indication that today was going to be a good day to Buy.1 out of…

Gold & oil point to higher equities

Gold & oil point to higher equities

2 mins. to read

Both oil and gold are rebounding, but the metal’s 3-month rally relative to energy has once again stalled at familiar levels (see chart below). This, according to recent history, has important market implications. The economic and technical rationale is outlined below. Gold/Oil Ratio Implications for Equities Declining Gold/Oil ratios have historically proven positive for global…

MID TERM TOP 5 THEMES

MID TERM TOP 5 THEMES

20 mins. to read

Given all that has happened in markets this year, many would be forgiven for thinking we were further than half way through it. The six months that have elapsed have themselves been a tale of two halves. Optimism over the global economic recovery saw many stock markets push on towards multi-year highs by the end of…

tHE ROGUE WAVE – COURTESY OF FATPROPHETS

tHE ROGUE WAVE – COURTESY OF FATPROPHETS

7 mins. to read

Overnight, European and US equity markets managed to hold onto Friday’s large gains which is an important sign that we may have reached a significant turning point. The “risk off” trade is clearly unwinding with the VIX falling below 17 for the first since the onset of the correction in early May. I have highlighted “correction”…

ECONOMIC DATA & ANALYST MOVES

ECONOMIC DATA & ANALYST MOVES

0 mins. to read

ECONOMIC DATA DUE 09:30 UK June PMI Construction, 52.9 exp. 54.4 previous 09:30 UK May Net Consumer Credit, £0.2bn exp. £0.3bn previous 10:00 Eurozone May PPI, -0.3% exp. 0.0% previous 15:00 US May Factory Orders, 0.1% exp. -0.6% previous   ECONOMIC EVENTS Van Rompuy, Barroso Speak to EU Parliament 15:00 IMF Releases US Economy Report…

ISM indicator – leading or lagging?

ISM indicator – leading or lagging?

2 mins. to read

Now that the US manufacturing ISM survey has finally succumbed to contraction territory (sub-50) already seen by the Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMIs) of the Eurozone, Germany, UK and China, we await further declines in the survey as well as a confirmation in services survey. The trend remains down especially as the latest Philly Fed survey…

Is caution warranted on Heritage Deal?

Is caution warranted on Heritage Deal?

2 mins. to read

It seems that a number of City analysts have taken a cautious stance in relation to the Nigerian Oil deal, even though Tony Buckingham appears to have pulled of a bit of a coup (‘scuse the pun) in relation to the boe (barrel of oil equivalent) paid of just $2.70 (not $1.70 as has been…

The wall of worry… There for climbing

The wall of worry… There for climbing

5 mins. to read

The “bearish consensus” was in deep trouble on Friday night with stock markets having the best month end rally for some months. Going into the European summit on Thursday, markets were extremely nervous and sceptical that a break through could be made on the Eurozone debt crisis. The bears believe that Friday’s upward dynamic will prove…