Volatility has been edging higher since the end of 2012, but so far, the stock market has held up pretty well. Take a look at the chart below of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), also known as the “Fear Factor Index,” based on the S&P 500 Index. The VIX reading is holding around 16.8—well below…
Yesterday’s trade on Wall Street demonstrated there is still a good deal of bullish sentiment out there. Going against this is usually a sure-fire way to trading oblivion but, I am still sticking to my guns. Given that the outlook for stocks is pretty much interlinked with the outlook for QE, the two day meeting…
Investors are returning to Europe as they retreat from emerging market and Japanese equities, according to the BofA Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey for June. Investor confidence has risen in the past month in spite of market instability and a 2.5 percent fall in world equities over the survey period. A net 56 percent of global investors believe the…
Shinzo Abe All of you know how I feel about the Japanese stock market and the economy in general. Yes, I was wrong in the past when I suggested traders and investors stay away from the Japanese stock market. The benchmark Nikkei 225 has been the top performer this year; in fact, at one point…
Following a 6 months period during which equity markets experienced seemingly one way movements – up and the US sovereign debt yield curve was calm, the latest turbulence principally in the bond market may just be a warning signal, certainly when coupled with the rising volatility seen during the last 5 weeks. For now though,…
Over the past few months, it appears that the first-quarter economic growth spurt has begun to decelerate in America. This is troublesome, as stock market investors had anticipated that we would be seeing economic growth finally gain steam. Unfortunately, we don’t have the global economy on which to rely. Much of the world remains quite…
How to read the table – Dark blue (very cheap) = current relative valuation < -1.5 standard deviations from historical average. Light blue (cheap) = current relative valuation between < -1.5 and <-0.75 standard deviations from historical average. No colour (neutral or N/A) = current relative valuation between > -0.75 and <+0.75 standard deviations from…
The Federal Open Market Committee starts its two day June policy meeting tomorrow. Although it is unlikely that there will be any immediate specific policy shifts as a result, Ben Bernanke is scheduled to give a press conference on Wednesday in conjunction with the release of the Committee’s statement. Whatever he says is likely to…
In UBS’ view, 1994 is critical for guiding investing today. The key point about 1994 was not that US bond yields rose during a global recovery. But that the leverage and positioning built up in previous years, on the assumption that yields would remain low, then got stressed. The central issue, they note, is that a long…
Stock-market crashes saw the light of day more and more as the world became industrialized. The 19th century saw a rapid increase in their numbers. There’s money to be had at any time, whether the market is going up or down. But, it’s avoiding the downs and pulling out before the things start to go haywire…
