Black Swan Survey

Speaking at the Isle of Man Funds Association Annual City Luncheon, Jim Mellon asked attendees what Black Swan event they anticipate in the coming year. Responses ranged from some tame market forecasts to full-scale World War 3.

Here is what they had to say-

Market predictions:

“The current UK HNW asset bubble bursts for London property, classic cars and art.”

(Bad news for Tatler)

“Collapse of the bond market.”

“Inflation shock as rates rise faster than expected.”

“A consolidation of the P2P market such as what happened in the Pay Day loan market.”

“Advertising revenue for social media does not materialise as Silicon Valley valuations fall.”

“Widespread market collapse caused by rapid unravelling of leveraged products on illiquid securities.”

“Asian equity markets experience extreme upside volatility.”

“Stock Market Crash!”

Europe:

“Political turmoil in Europe which leads to a PIGS default.”

“Contagion in Europe. Portugal; then Spain; then France; then Brexit.”

“UK votes to leave EU. David Cameron calls a snap election and Jeremy Corbyn becomes PM.”

Russia:

“Putin will no longer be in power.”

“New Cold War.”

“Russia going into Ukraine and Syria looks a little “1914”. Could we be on the cusp of World War 3?”

Rest of World:

“Islamic tensions see Dubai’s ruler Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum fall.”

“War breaks out between China and Japan.”

“Major China Earthquake halts nuclear development.”

“Military coup in the US.”

“US election null and void as candidate shot dead.”

Probably Trump. Shooting himself. In the foot.

One smart aleck responded with this quip:

“It cannot be a Black Swan if it has been predicted. It is a paradox.”

True. Which I guess renders this exercise obsolete.

But don’t say we didn’t warn you…

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What are your Black Swan predictions for 2016? We’d love to hear them.

Email: info@masterinvestor.co.uk or tweet us @masterinvestor

We’ll publish the best on the blog with a prize for our favourite.

Keep an eye out for the January edition of the Master Investor Magazine, where our writers will reveal their top investment ideas for 2016.

Words: Josh Allsopp

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