Xcite Energy – odds of corporate activity shortening as share price lengthens

Editor Update (16:11PM) – Very happy holding here. Looks like a nice strong close is in the bag and bodes well for an RNS tomorrow.

The Independent ran the following this morning, “In better news, Aim-listed Xcite Energy continued its ascendance that began in July. Traders back from their August holidays have taken note of the gushing oil at its Bentley oilfield and have even whispered that Xcite might look interesting to a bigger rival such as Statoil. It finished the day up 1p to 93p.” http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/sharewatch/market-report-rothschild-miner-bumi-hits-a-slump-8084719.html

With today’s share price action in Xcite, something certainly seems to be afoot, with an 8.5% rise to 101.5p. Spreadbetmagazine.com highlighted the potential for a break out on August 20th, http://www.spreadbetmagazine.com/blog/2012/8/20/xcite-energy-breaks-out-sbm-adds-to-conviction-buy-position.html

The shares are now up nearly 30% in the last week or so following the closure of the 3rd stage of the private placement with Global on the 21st August.  There has been no operational update from the extended well test on the Bentley Field from Xcite since the 3rd August. So, after over 3 weeks, news must be close… There certainly seems to be solid support developing around £1.

Experience has shown with Xcite that the upside movement can be huge in no more than a few days if a positive RNS does arrive – look at what happened around the time of the reserves upgrade! For holders of this share, nice to see the £1 level breached once more, though the days of £4 in 2010 seem a very long way off! A step in the right direction at least.

Contrarian Investor UK

Editor addition – if we can hold above 100p today, technically the chart break-out is confirmed and 120p+ beckons. We added to our Conviction Buy just over a week ago in the mid 80’s and will additionally “pyramid” our position up once more if we hold the 100p  level on good volume. Sometimes adding to winning positions where conviction is high is the right way to go (and is contrary to many traders actions of averaging losers).